双向FDI对产业间协调和产业转型升级的影响——基于数字经济发展的实证分析

The Impact of Two-way FDI on Inter-industry Coordination and Industrial Transformation and Upgrading——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Development of Digital Economy

本文运用2011—2022年中国30个省份(除西藏)的面板数据,实证分析了外商直接投资(FDI)和对外直接投资(OFDI)对产业间协调和产业转型升级的影响及区域表现差异,并构建数字经济发展水平指数,分析数字经济发展水平对FDI和OFDI的产业间协调效应和产业转型升级效应的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明:中国FDI和OFDI对产业间协调程度具有显著促进作用,但两者的交互项却对其具有显著抑制作用;中国FDI和OFDI对产业转型升级程度具有显著抑制作用,但两者的交互项却对其具有显著促进作用;数字经济发展水平能够通过需求效应、供给效应、技术溢出效应、逆向技术溢出效应、自然资源水平效应五大机制影响FDI和OFDI的产业间协调效应和产业转型升级效应。研究结论对于如何在数字化时代更好地推动双向FDI对产业结构形成积极影响具有一定启示,并为中国引资、投资政策的制定提供了新的视角和思路。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China(except Xizang)from 2011 to 2022,this paper analyzes the influence of foreign direct investment(FDI)and outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)on inter-industry coordination,industrial transformation and upgrading and the regional differences.It also constructs the development index of digital economy to analyze its influence and mechanism on inter-industry coordination and industrial transformation and upgrading effect of FDI and OFDI.The results show that FDI and OFDI in China can significantly promote the inter-industry coordination,but their interaction terms can also significantly inhibit it.FDI and OFDI in China have a significant inhibitory effect on industrial transformation and upgrading,but their interaction terms have a significant promoting effect.The development of digital economy can influence the inter-industry coordination and industrial transformation and upgrading effect of FDI and OFDI through five major mechanisms:demand effect,supply effect,technology spillover effect,reverse technology spillover effect and natural resource effect.This study has certain enlightenment on how to promote the positive impact of two-way FDI on industrial structure in the digital era,and provides a new perspective for the formulation of investment attraction and investment policies in China.