网络媒体平台管控行为的随机演化博弈决策研究

Research on the Random Evolutionary Game Decision of Online Media Platform Management Behavior

[目的/意义]网络媒体平台在突发公共事件中发挥着重要作用。通过对不确定环境下网络媒体平台管控行为的随机演化博弈分析,为网络媒体平台舆论管控提供建议。[方法/过程]基于Moran过程的随机演化模型,将自然选择规则作为策略更新规则,探讨了影响网络媒体平台管控行为的因素,分析了外部随机性因素和内部因素主导情境下的均衡结果。[结果/结论]研究发现,网络媒体平台管控行为主要受外部随机性因素、平台数量规模、不同管控行为的成本收益影响。外部随机性越小、平台管控收益越大且成本越小,积极管控的扎根概率就越大,平台数量规模存在着一个能够有效管控突发公共事件的临界值,能为突发公共事件中网络媒体平台管控提供新思路。

[Purpose/significance]By analyzing the stochastic evolutionary game of control behavior of online media platforms under uncertain environment,we provide suggestions for public opinion control of online media platforms.[Method/process]Based on the stochastic evolution model of Moran process,this paper uses natural selectionrules asthe strategy updating rules,explores the factorsthat influence the governancebehavior ofonline media platforms,and analyzes the equilibrium results under the dominance of external randomness factors and internal factors.[Result/conclusion]The study found that the control behaviors adopted by online media platforms are mainly influenced by three factors:external randomness factor,the scale of the number of platforms,and the cost-benefit of different control behaviors.The smaller the external randomness,the greater the control benefit and the smaller the cost of online media platforms,the greater the probability of active control by online media platforms to take root,and there existed a critical value for the size of online media platforms to be able to effectively control public emergencies,which could provide new thinking for the control of online media platforms in sudden public emergencies.