类比分析方法在矿井涌水量预测中的应用——以榆神三期矿区为例

Application of Analogy Method in Mine Water Inflow Prediction∶Taking Yushen PhaseⅢMining Area as an Example

榆神三期矿区位于防风固沙、水源涵养的重要生态功能区,地下水是维系区域生态系统的重要水源,准确估算矿井涌水量对区域地下水保护意义重大。我国现有矿井涌水量预测方法主要分为确定性(包括数值模拟法、解析法等)和非确定性(包括类比法、模糊数学模型、时间序列分析等)两大类。本研究采用类比法,分析了各拟类比矿井的水文地质条件、地质结构分区、煤层埋深、导水裂缝影响情况以及隔水层保留厚度等条件,在本矿区或临近区域内确定类比对象矿井,进一步分析了矿井各阶段开采规模、采煤方法、开采工作面等条件,明确了类比的开采阶段,得出了矿井涌水量预测结果,并对不同方法矿井涌水量预测结果进行了对比。合理采用类比法开展矿井涌水量预测,可为周边分布有敏感水环境保护目标的矿区,以及生态系统稳定性明显受地下水资源影响的矿区,科学制定地下水保护对策提供更为准确的数据支撑。

Yushen phaseⅢmining area is located in an important ecological function area for wind prevention,sand fixation and water conservation.Groundwater is important to maintain the regional ecosystem.Accurate estimation of mine water inflow is of great significance for regional groundwater protection.The existing methods for predicting mine water inflow in China are mainly divided into two categories∶deterministic methods(including numerical simulation method,analytical method,etc.)and non-deterministic methods(including analogy method,fuzzy mathematical model,time series analysis,etc.).This study uses the analogy method to analyze the hydrogeological conditions,geological structure zoning,coal seam burial depth,influence of water conducting cracks,and retaining thickness of aquifers of each proposed analog mine.The mine to be analogized is determined within the mining area or adjacent areas,and conditions such as mining scale,mining method,and mining face at each stage of the mine are further analyzed.The prediction results of mine water inflow are obtained,and the prediction results of mine water inflow using different methods are compared.Reasonable use of analogy methods to predict mine water inflow can provide more accurate data support for formulating scientific countermeasures for mining areas with sensitive water environment protection targets in the surrounding area,as well as mining areas where the stability of the ecosystem is significantly affected by groundwater resources.