基于倾向性评分逆概率加权法的视网膜母细胞瘤疗效评价及其预后影响因素分析

Efficacy evaluation and prognostic factors analysis of retinoblastoma based on propensity score inverse probability weighting method

目的评估手术、化疗及手术联合化疗3种治疗方式对视网膜母细胞瘤(RB)的疗效,分析RB患者的预后影响因素。方法选取2000年1月1日-2019年12月31日美国监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库登记的RB患者1188例临床资料进行回顾性分析。采用倾向性评分逆概率加权法(IPTW)对接受手术、化疗或手术联合化疗治疗的3组患者基线特征进行平衡。采用Log-rank检验比较3组患者的生存概率,采用Cox回归模型分析RB患者预后影响因素。结果共纳入RB1188例,其中手术组426例,化疗组200例,手术联合化疗组562例。经IPTW加权后,患者的年龄、性别、种族等基线资料均达到平衡(P>0.05)。Log-rank检验结果显示,加权前后3组生存曲线比较差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);加权后,手术组患者生存情况明显优于化疗组和手术联合化疗组(P<0.05),化疗组与手术联合化疗组比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。加权后患者1年、3年和5年的生存概率为:手术组99.7%、98.9%和98.6%;化疗组97.4%、95.8%和95.8%;手术联合化疗组97.9%、95.8%和95.0%。Cox回归分析结果显示,与手术组比较,化疗组患者特异性死亡风险比为1.367(95%CI 1.100~1.700),手术联合化疗组特异性死亡风险比为1.132(95%CI0.963~1.330);与RB病灶为1个的患者比较,RB病灶数≥2个的患者特异性死亡风险比为0.399(95%CI0.268~0.594)。结论RB患者接受治疗后生存概率较高;在控制年龄、性别等因素的影响后,3种治疗方式中手术的疗效更好;多灶性可能是RB患者预后的独立影响因素。

Objective To evaluate the efficacy of surgery,chemotherapy and surgery combined chemotherapy for retinoblastoma(RB),and analyze the prognostic factors of RB patients.Methods Clinical data of 1188 RB patients registered in the Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Results(SEER)database from January 2000 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed.The baseline characteristics of patients treated with surgery,chemotherapy or surgery combined with chemotherapy were balanced by inverse probability of treatment weighting(IPTW).Log-rank test analysis was used to compare the survival probability of patients in the 3 groups,and Cox regression models were used to analyse the factors influencing the prognosis of RB patients.Results A total of 1188 RB cases were included in this study,including 426 cases in surgery group,200 cases in chemotherapy group and 562 cases in surgery combined with chemotherapy group.After IPTW weighting,baseline data such as age,sex and race were balanced(P>0.05).Log-rank test results showed that the survival curves of the three groups were significantly different before and after weighting(P<0.05).After weighted,the survival of patients in surgery group was significantly better than that in chemotherapy group and surgery combined chemotherapy group(P<0.05),and there was no statistical significance between chemotherapy group and surgery combined chemotherapy group(P>0.05).The weighted patient survival probability at 1st,3rd and 5th years were 99.7%,98.9%and 98.6%in surgery group;97.4%,95.8%and 95.8%in chemotherapy group;and 97.9%,95.8%and 95.0%in surgery combined chemotherapy group.Cox regression analysis showed that compared with surgery group,the specific risk ratio of death was 1.367(95%CI 1.100-1.700)in chemotherapy group and 1.132(95%CI 0.963-1.330)in combined chemotherapy group.Compared with patients with 1 RB lesion,the patient-specific mortality risk ratio for patients with 2 or more RB lesions was 0.399(95%CI 0.268-0.594).Conclusions Patients with RB have higher survival rates probability after treatment.After controlling the influence of age,sex and other factors,the effect of surgery was better among the three treatment methods.Multifocality may be an independent prognostic factor in RB patients.