基于食品监督抽检数据的食品安全风险分析及预测

Analysis and prediction of food safety risk based on sampling data of food supervision

目的了解近年来食品安全抽检整体情况,更好地发挥抽检在食品监管中的作用,增强监管的靶向性与针对性。方法收集2019—2021年天津市蓟州区市场监管局食品监督抽检的数据,利用卡方检验对可能导致抽检不合格的因素进行分析;采用二元Logistic回归建立统计模型,从食品安全风险分析角度探讨可能影响抽检结果的因素,检验水准α=0.05。结果农村相较于城镇(χ^(2)=18.743,P<0.05)、餐饮环节相较于生产环节和流通环节(χ^(2)=32.606,P<0.05)、本地相较于外地(χ^(2)=23.349,P<0.05)、散装相较于预包装(χ^(2)=32.542,P<0.05)食品抽检不合格率高;多因素Logistic回归分析显示,抽样地区、抽检年份、食品类别和抽检季度是抽检结果的影响因素,回归模型对抽检结果的预测正确率为78.42%,并可以在实践中应用。结论二元Logistic回归模型能较好预测食品抽检结果,监管部门应利用模型预测食品抽检结果并识别导致食品抽检不合格的风险因素,针对农村地区、散装食品、本地食品、小微餐饮业等加强监管,预防食品安全风险隐患。

Objective To understand the overall situation of random inspection of food safety in recent years,to play better in the role of random inspection of food supervision,and to enhance the targeting and pertinence of supervision.Methods Sampling inspection data of food supervision of Jizhou District Market Supervision Bureau of Tianjin from 2019 to 2021 were collected,and the factors that may lead to unqualified sampling inspection were analyzed by Chi-square test;Binary Logistic regression was used to establish a statistical model,and the factors that might affect the sampling results were explored from the perspective of food safety risk analysis,with the test levelα=0.05.Results Rural compared with urban(χ^(2)=18.743,P<0.05),catering compared with production and distribution(χ^(2)=32.606,P<0.05),local compared with foreign(χ^(2)=23.349,P<0.05),bulk compared with pre-packed(χ^(2)=32.542,P<0.05).The unqualified rate of food sampling was high;Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that sampling area,sampling year,food category and sampling season were the influencing factors of sampling results.The accuracy of prediction of sampling results by regression model was 78.42%,which could be applied in practice.Conclusions The binary logistic regression model can better predict the results of food sampling inspection.The supervision department should use the model to predict the results of food sampling inspection and identify the risk factors that lead to unqualified food sampling inspection,and supervision should be strengthened in rural areas,bulk food,local food,small and micro catering industry and so on,so that to prevent food safety risks and hidden dangers.