智能革命还是“规模”革命?——历史视野下的人工智能技术与产业演化

Intelligent Revolution or "Scale" Revolution?——The Evolution of Artificial Intelligence Technology and Industry from a Historical Perspective

2022年末美国OpenAI公司发布的对话式人工智能(AI)通用大模型——ChatGPT-3.5,标志着讨论多年的人工智能技术终于进入了商用阶段。与之前一些不太成熟的人工智能技术相比,ChatGPT不仅在理解和逻辑能力上有大幅提升,而且作为通用大模型,ChatGPT试图为使用者提供跨领域、一般性的知识和信息。此后短短一年多时间里,国内外领先的信息技术与互联网公司纷纷推出自己的大模型,争相加入这场AI技术军备竞赛中。

The commercialization of AI technologies is set to significantly impact human societies.How will these impacts manifest and how should nations adjust their socioeconomic systems to adapt to and harness AI technologies?General-purpose AI technologies may usher the IT industry into an era of mass production,akin to the transformation of industrial production by large-scale manufacturing technologies in the 20th century.AI technologies are poised to reshape the IT industry into a capital-intensive sector relying on economies of scale.Drawing parallels with the multiple transformations in manufacturing technology since the Industrial Revolution,the article proposes a three-stage theory of industrial technological development to understand the impact of the AI technology revolution.