洪水资料短缺条件下澄江九堡水位站预警水位分析确定

Analysis and Determination of Warning Water Levels at Chengjiang Jiubao Water Level Station Under Conditions of Limited Flood Data Availability

为合理确定中小河流预警水位,本文提出由暴雨途径或水文比拟法确定预警水位相应流量,结合洪水特性和洪水调查成果分析,科学确定洪水预警水位的计算方法。此方法可助力河流洪水风险防控“四预”机制快速完整建立,弥补中小河流因水文资料不足造成的洪水预警缺失。本文以贡水支流澄江九堡水位站为例,介绍通过区域洪水特性分析和预警河段洪水调查,确定江河预警水位的分析计算过程,该方法既符合区域洪水变化规律,又结合了测站河道特性及河段成灾水位成因,精度较高,应用前景广阔。

To rationally establish warning water levels for small and medium-sized rivers,this paper proposes a method that determines the corresponding discharge for warning water levels based on the storm path or hydrological analogy approach.This method,combined with the analysis of flood characteristics and flood investigation results,scientifically determines the calculation method for flood warning water levels.This approach can aid in the rapid and comprehensive establishment of the“four-early”flood risk prevention and control mechanism for river floods and address the lack of flood warning due to limited hydrological data for small and medium-sized rivers.Taking the example of Chengjiang Jiubao water level station on a tributary of Gongshui River,this paper elaborates on the analysis and calculation process for determining river warning water levels through regional flood characteristics analysis and investigations of flood-prone sections.This method aligns with regional flood patterns and considers the characteristics of the river channel at the monitoring station and the causes of flooding at the river section,resulting in a higher level of accuracy and promising application prospects.