人口增长与收缩对城市经济韧性的影响机制--基于产业结构和人力资本的调节效应

The impact mechanism of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience:Based on the moderating effects of industrial structure and human capital

【目的】提高经济韧性是实现城市可持续发展的关键。当前城市人口分化日益明显,探究人口增长与收缩对城市经济韧性的影响机制,对增强城市韧性、应对不确定风险具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于2008—2019年中国280个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用固定效应模型和调节效应模型,实证检验了人口增长与收缩对城市经济韧性的影响机制。【结果】研究发现:①人口增长与收缩对城市经济韧性具有显著影响,其中对城市抵御风险能力的影响大于对经济恢复能力的影响。②机制分析表明,产业结构和人力资本水平在人口增长与收缩对城市经济韧性的影响中具有正向调节作用。③产业结构升级效应和人力资本效应具有城市规模和资源禀赋异质性,其中产业结构升级效应在大城市和非资源型经济地区较为明显。【结论】提高人力资本水平、加快产业集聚和升级是人口分化背景下增强城市经济韧性重要策略,本文的研究发现可为不同地区制定适应人口增长与收缩的可持续发展路径提供重要参考。

[Objective]Enhancing economic resilience of cities is key to achieving sustainable urban development.With the increasing differentiation in urban population growth,exploring the mechanisms of impact of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience is crucial for strengthening urban resilience and addressing uncertain risks.[Methods]Based on the panel data of 280 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2008 to 2019,this study employed fixed effect models and moderating effect models to empirically test the mechanisms of impact of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience.[Results]The study found that:(1)Population growth and shrinkage have a significant impact on urban economic resilience,with a greater effect on the cities’ability to withstand risks than on their economic recovery capabilities.(2)Mechanism analysis result indicates that industrial structure and human capital level played a positive moderating role in the impact of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience.(3)The effects of industrial structure upgrading and human capital varied with city size and resource endowment,with the industrial structure upgrading effect more pronounced in large cities and non-resource-based economic regions.[Conclusion]Improving the level of human capital and accelerating industrial agglomeration and upgrading are important strategies to enhance urban economic resilience in the context of population growth differentiation.The findings of this study can provide important references for different regions to formulate sustainable development paths adapted to population growth or shrinkage.