人口收缩型中小城市建设用地供应动态特征及分异

Dynamic characteristics and differentiation of construction land supply in shrinking small and medium-sized cities

【目的】收缩型中小城市普遍存在人口收缩-建设用地扩张的矛盾现象,解析建设用地供应动态特征是深入理解其机理的基础。【方法】使用中国土地市场网交易数据,基于倾向得分匹配模型遴选对照城市,解析71个收缩型中小城市样本相对于增长型中小城市样本的建设用地供应动态特征(组间差异);基于系统聚类分析,探讨收缩型中小城市建设用地供应的差异特征(组内差异);基于Logistic回归,分析组间和组内供地差异形成的关键主导因素。【结果】①相比对照城市,收缩型中小城市建设用地供应特征为规模降低,价格增长明显放缓,以划拨等非市场化方式供地的比重、交通和公共设施等非经营性和非产业供地比重有较快扩大的趋势。其中,东北地区还表现为供地规模较大但价格普遍较低的区域性特征。②依据建设用地供应特征,71个收缩型中小城市样本可降维并归纳为“低水平供给型”“供给退化型”“弱增长供给型”3种类型。其中,“低水平供给型”城市多为传统农业型城市,建设用地市场发育程度较低;“供给退化型”城市多为重工业衰退城市,建设用地市场呈衰退态势;“弱增长供给型”城市多为增长区域内的人口外流城市,建设用地市场稳定发展但存在衰退风险。③组间供地差异主要与人口和产业发展等需求因素相关,组内供地差异则主要与政府供给因素和工业发展水平相关。【结论】收缩型中小城市的建设用地供应显示出群体性特征和内部差异。尽管收缩城市的建设用地供应可以被地方政府短期改变,但往往会在长时期的波动中回归到人口和产业等发展条件决定的真实水平,因此人-地增长悖论在一定程度上将有所纠正。据此,对收缩型中小城市的国土空间规划、城市更新等工作提出了政策建议。

[Objective]The contradiction between population shrinkage and construction land expansion is common in shrinking small and medium-sized cities.Analyzing the dynamic characteristics of construction land supply is an important basis for understanding the mechanism of change.[Methods]Using data from www.landchina.com,this study employed the propensity score matching model to choose control cities,and analyzed the dynamic characteristics of construction land supply in 71 shrinking small and medium-sized cities(that is,inter-group differences).Then,based on panel clustering analysis,this study explored the differential characteristics of construction land supply within these shrinking small and medium-sized cities(that is,intra-group differences).Finally,this study used Logistic regression to analyze the potential factors contributing to intergroup and intra-group differences.[Results](1)The construction land supply of shrinking small and medium-sized cities has the following outstanding characteristics compared with the control cities:a decreasing trend in the supply of construction land,a significant slowdown in price growth,an increasing trend of non-market-oriented supply,and a faster expansion of non-business and nonindustrial land supply.Among them,the shrinking cities in Northeast China showed both the general land supply trends of shrinking cities,and regional characteristics of larger land supply scale generally at lower prices.(2)This study categorized the 71 shrinking small and medium-sized cities into three types:low-level supply cities,declining supply cities,and weak growth supply cities.Cities of the first type are mostly traditional agricultural cities,which had a lower level of construction land market development.Cities of the second type are mostly resource-based industrial decline cities,which had a declining construction land market.Cities of the third type mostly experience population outflow within a growing region,which had a stable construction land market but a risk of decline.(3)Demand factors such as population and industrial development are the main factors contributing to inter-group differences,while intra-group differences are mainly associated with government supply factors and the level of industrial development.[Conclusion]Shrinking small and medium-sized cities exhibit both common features and internal diversity and differences in construction land supply.While the construction land supply can be temporarily changed by local governments,it tends to return to the actual level determined by the development conditions over a longer period.Therefore,the population-land use growth paradox in these cities will be corrected to some extent.Based on the conclusion,this article also proposed some policy recommendations for the spatial planning and urban renewal of shrinking small and medium-sized cities.