绿色金融改革创新试验区政策对碳排放的影响效应——基于282个城市面板数据的准实验研究

Impact of China's PZGFRI policy on carbon emissions:a quasi‑experimental study based on urban panel data from 282 cities

建立绿色金融改革创新试验区是中国重要的绿色金融政策之一,也是实现“双碳”目标的重要手段。该研究首先通过理论模型求解阐述绿色金融政策实现碳减排效应的作用机理。在此基础上,利用2006—2019年中国282个城市的面板数据,运用双重差分模型实证分析绿色金融改革创新试验区政策的碳减排效应及其中介效应作用机制,探究绿色金融改革创新试验区政策在地理区域、资源禀赋、主导产业、产业禀赋方面的碳减排效应异质性,以及绿色金融改革创新试验区与低碳城市在碳减排方面的协同效应。研究表明:①绿色金融改革创新试验区政策存在显著的碳减排效应,通过替换变量、缩尾处理、增加控制变量、改变窗口期、倾向得分匹配-双重差分模型、安慰剂检验等方法进一步验证了该结果的稳健性。②绿色金融改革创新试验区政策在微观层面通过提高重污染企业融资约束和降低企业碳排放进而实现城市层面的碳减排效应,在宏观层面通过促进绿色技术创新和优化能源消费结构进而实现碳减排效应。③绿色金融改革创新试验区政策的碳减排效应并不存在显著的地理区域差异,但由于资源禀赋较好的城市存在“资源诅咒”问题,资源型城市比非资源型城市的试验区碳减排效应更差。④绿色金融改革创新试验区政策的碳减排效应在主导产业与产业禀赋不同的城市存在“马太效应”,第二产业主导的城市和老工业基地城市碳减排效果较差,第三产业主导的城市和非老工业基地城市碳减排效果较好。⑤绿色金融改革创新试验区与低碳城市试点地区在碳减排方面具有显著的正向协同效应,两种政策同时实行的城市碳减排效果更好。

The establishment of pilot zones for green financial reform and innovation(PZGFRI)is one of the important green financial policies in China and an important means to achieve the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality.This study first explained the mechanism of the green financial policies on carbon emission reduction by solving the theoretical model.On this basis,the study used panel data from 282 cities in China from 2006 to 2019 to empirically analyze the carbon emission reduction effect of the PZGFRI policy and the mechanism of its mediating effect using a difference-in-differences model.The study also investigated the heterogeneity of the carbon emission reduction effect of the PZGFRI policy in terms of geographic regions,resource endowments,leading industries,industrial endowments,and the synergistic effects of the pilot zones and low-carbon cities in carbon emission reduction.The results showed that:①The PZGFRI policy had a significant carbon emission reduction effect,and the robustness of the results was further verified by replacing variables,shrinking the tail treatment,adding control variables,changing the window period,and using the propensity score matching difference-in-differences model and placebo test.②The PZGFRI policy achieved a carbon emission reduction effect at the city level by improving financing constraints for heavy polluters,reducing the carbon emissions of enterprises at the micro level,promoting green technology innovation,and optimizing energy consumption structures at the macro level.③There was no significant geographical difference in the carbon emission reduction effect of the PZGFRI policy,but due to the‘resource curse’problem in cities with better resource endowments,the carbon emission reduction effect of the pilot zones in resource-based cities was worse than that in non-resource-based cities.④The carbon emission reduction effect of the PZGFRI policy had a‘Matthew effect’in cities with different industrial endowments,and the carbon emission reduction effect was worse in cities with secondary industries and old industrial bases and better in cities with tertiary industries and non-old industrial bases.⑤There was a significant positive synergistic effect between the PZGFRI and the low-carbon city pilot zones in terms of carbon emission reduction,and the cities with both policies had a better carbon emission reduction effect.