减污降碳协同效应综合评估的研究综述与展望

Comprehensive evaluations of the synergistic effects of carbon emission reduction and air pollution control:a literature review

温室气体与大气污染物减排是环境和气候治理的重要任务,推进减污降碳协同增效是促进经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重要抓手,可以助力美丽中国建设和“双碳”目标实现。该研究系统梳理了减污降碳协同效应的概念、类别及量化评估方法,详细比较了自顶向下、自底向上、混合协同效应综合评估模型的特点和适用情况,分析总结了协同效应在各国单一目标和协同控制政策中的应用,以期为中国减污降碳协同增效政策发挥协同治理效果提供经验指导。从技术视角结合污染物与温室气体的直接和间接联系,剖析了协同效应产生的根源;从行业视角探索电力、工业、交通等重点行业助力减污降碳目标的发力点;从管理科学的视角总结了协同效应综合评估中四个关键科学问题,并提出后续的突破方向。综合评估流程的规范化和各评估环节中的多学科交叉体现了综合评估的复杂性,需要剖析温室气体与污染物的产生和传播过程及二者之间的直接和间接联系、温室气体与污染物的健康影响机理等;综合评估中时间、空间和评估对象选择的多样性导致结果的不确定性,需要依托逐渐成熟的大数据收集存储技术,加强协同控制对排放水平、健康水平、减排成本、农业和生态系统影响的定量刻画。增强协同效应评估的可比性有利于不同结果的相互佐证和对比分析,需要合理计算协同控制在不同维度的综合收益;国家、区域、城市层面评估的侧重点差异较大,需要明晰减污降碳治理体系并加强评估的层次性,以促进各级管理部门更科学地开展减污降碳协同增效的政策实践。

The reduction of greenhouse gases and atmospheric pollutants is an important component of environmental and climate governance.Synergizing the reduction of air pollution and carbon emissions is a general starting point for advancing the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development,which is helpful for the construction of a beautiful China and the achievement of the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality.This paper systematically reviews the concept,category,and quantitative evaluation methods of promoting the synergistic effects of air pollution control and carbon emission reduction,and compares the characteristics and applicability of comprehensive top-down,bottom-up,and mixed synergistic effect evaluation models.We also analyzed and summarized the application of synergistic effects in policies to achieve a single target and collaborative control in various countries,with the purpose of providing empirical guidance for China's relevant policies to exert synergistic governance effects.From a technical perspective and combining the direct and indirect links between pollutants and greenhouse gases,this paper analyzes the deep-rooted causes of the synergistic effects,explores the driving forces of key industries such as electric power,industry,and transportation to help reduce pollution and carbon emissions,and summarizes four key scientific issues in comprehensive evaluations of synergistic effects from a management science perspective.The standardization of the comprehensive evaluation process and the interdisciplinary intersection of various evaluation processes reflect the complexity of the evaluations,and it is necessary to analyze the production and transmission processes of greenhouse gases and pollutants,as well as the direct and indirect links between the two and their mechanisms impacting health.The diversity of time,space,and evaluation object selection in comprehensive evaluations leads to uncertainty in the results.Therefore,it is necessary to rely on gradually mature big data collection and storage technology to strengthen the synergistic control and quantitative mapping of the impact on emission levels,health levels,emission reduction costs,and agricultural and ecological systems.Enhancing the comparability of comprehensive evaluations is conducive to the mutual confirmation and comparative analysis of different results.It is also necessary to reasonably calculate the comprehensive benefits of synergistic control in different dimensions.The focus of evaluations at the national,regional,and urban levels varies greatly,so it is necessary to clarify the pollution and carbon reduction governance system and strengthen the hierarchical nature of the evaluations in order to promote more scientific implementation of policies by management departments at all levels to achieve the synergistic effects of carbon emission reduction and air pollution control.