土地流转视角下耕地“非粮化”时空格局演变及驱动因素

Spatio‑temporal evolution patterns and driving factors of farmland non‑grain cultivation from the perspective of farmland transfer

该研究对2009—2020年中国流转耕地“非粮化”的时空格局进行量化测度,利用Tobit模型、空间计量模型和工具变量法,从“人”“地”“钱”多视角探析流转耕地“非粮化”的驱动因素及其空间异质性。结果显示:①流转耕地“非粮化”具有阶段性和区域性,非粮食主产区的流转耕地“非粮化”是全国层面流转耕地“非粮化”加剧的主要原因。②土地流转是耕地“非粮化”的重要驱动因素。提高土地流转面积和将土地流转给生活型经营者,有利于抑制耕地“非粮化”发展,但土地流转租金上涨会难以避免地加剧耕地“非粮化”程度。③土地流转与耕地“非粮化”关系存在区域异质性。在粮食主产区,土地流转面积提高对流转耕地“非粮化”的抑制作用更强;在非粮食主产区,生产型农业经营者采取“非粮化”种植行为的倾向更强。因此,为应对流转耕地“非粮化”现象,应健全耕地保护补偿制度,对防止流转耕地“非粮化”目标完成好的地区给予奖补;重点规范非粮食主产区的工商资本流转土地行为,对农户粮食种植行为给予奖励;进一步推进粮食主产区的土地流转和整治工程,发展耕地适度规模化经营;完善农地流转交易平台,继续加强土地流转价格监控。

This article quantitatively measured the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of transferred farmland non-grain cultivation in China from 2009 to 2020.Utilizing the Tobit model,spatial econometric model,and instrumental variables method,it explored the driving factors and spatial heterogeneity of farmland non-grain cultivation from multiple perspectives,including‘people,’‘land,’and‘money.’The results indicated that:①The farmland non-grain cultivation exhibited stages and regional characteristics,with the farmland non-grain cultivation in non-food-producing regions being the main contributor to the nationwide trend.②Land transfer played a pivotal role in farmland non-grain cultivation.Increasing the area of land transfers and directing transfers to subsistence-oriented operators could help suppress the development of farmland non-grain cultivation,yet the rise in land transfer rents might exacerbate the degree of farmland non-grain cultivation.③The relationship between land transfer and farmland non-grain cultivation exhibited regional heterogeneity.In grain-producing areas,increasing the area of land transfers had a stronger inhibitory effect on farmland non-grain cultivation,while in non-food-producing areas,production-oriented agricultural operators exhibited a stronger tendency towards non-grain practices.Therefore,to address the phenomenon of farmland non-grain cultivation,this study suggests improving the compensation system for farmland protection,offering incentives to areas that effectively prevent non-grain cultivation,rigorously regulating land transfer behaviors in non-food-producing areas,and rewarding agricultural households for food cultivation practices.It also recommends further promoting land transfer and consolidation projects in grain-producing areas,developing moderately scaled farmland management,enhancing farmland transfer trading platforms,and continuing strengthening monitoring of land transfer prices.