“双循环”促进利用外资“稳中提质”的效应评估

Assessment of the Effect of Dual Circulation Promoting the Utilization of Foreign Investment“to Improve Quality in a Stable Manner”

受日趋复杂和严峻的外部环境变化冲击以及内部传统低成本优势不断丧失的影响,近年来,中国利用外资虽面临挑战,但与全球对外直接投资下滑相比却成功实现了“逆势上扬”,其根本逻辑在于“双循环”能够形成吸引外资的新优势。具体而言,超大本土市场规模优势下的产业配套能力提升和消费需求规模的扩大、更高开放水平下的国际循环畅通以及二者的相互作用,高度契合了全球价值链分工条件下跨国公司布局全球生产网络,尤其是布局高端生产环节和阶段的现实需求,在利用外资上即表现为“稳中提质”。在创新性地对国内国际双循环进行定量和有效测度的基础上,进一步开展的计量检验结果证实了上述理论预期的正确性,即“双循环”能够显著促进利用外资“稳中提质”,并且主要通过更加畅通的国内循环和国际循环及其二者相互促进的机制发挥作用。在经济全球化新形势下和中国迈入高质量发展新阶段后,为充分发挥外资在现代化建设中的作用,中国应加快构建新发展格局,依托超大本土市场规模优势,在实施扩大内需战略、加快国内市场一体化和制度创新的同时积极参与全球生产网络和价值链分工体系,以形成利用外资“稳中提质”的新优势。

In recent years,China’s utilization of FDI,despite the challenges it has faced,has managed to“buck the trend”of the global decline in outward FDI,the underlying logic of which is that the“dual circulation”can create a new advantage in attracting FDI.However,there are few direct analyses in the existing literature on the link between the new development pattern of the dual circulation and the“stable improvement”in the quality of FDI.Among the many factors affecting FDI,even the studies conducted from the perspective of the dual-circulation mainly focus on qualitative discussions or certain specific factors in the domestic and international macro-circulation,failing to focus on the possible impact of the dual-circulation itself on China’s“steady improvement of the quality of utilization of FDI”.This paper,by adopting the Asian Development Bank(ADB),the University of International Business and Economics Global Value Chain Database(UIBE GVC),and the China Carbon Accounting Databases(CCADs),etc.,based on Ni Hongfu et al.(2016)’s method of measuring the length of domestic and international production segmentation,quantitatively measures the“double cycle”and examines the effect of“dual circulation”on the“quality”and“quantity”of foreign investment utilization.The empirical study finds that the domestic and international dual circulation and their interaction play a significant role in promoting the“quality”and“quantity”of FDI utilization.Specifically:the improvement of industrial supporting capacity and demand expansion under the scale advantage of the local market,as well as the increase in the degree of openness,are the key mechanisms for the dual circulation to promote the utilization of FDI“steadily improving quality”;“The quality of the system plays a significant positive regulatory role in the promotion of“steady improvement in the quality”of foreign capital utilization,that is,the more perfect the quality of the system,the more conducive to the dual circulation promoting the utilization of foreign capital;the results of the heterogeneity test show that the dual circulation has a more significant effect on the promotion of the tertiary industry,and due to the existence of market segmentation between regions,the dual circulation has a more significant effect on the promotion of the tertiary industry than the central and western inland regions.At the same time,due to the existence of inter-regional market segmentation,the domestic and international dual circulation has a more significant effect on the“quality”and“quantity”of foreign capital utilization in the eastern coastal region than inland areas in the central and western regions.The possible marginal contributions of this paper include:in terms of research perspective,different from the factors influencing the utilization of FDI,including high-quality utilization of FDI,which has been the concern of the existing research literature,this paper focuses on expanding the analysis of the factors influencing the utilization of FDI to improve the quality in a stable manner from the perspective of the domestic and international dual circulation;In terms of research content,regarding the possible impact of the dual circulation on the utilization of foreign investment“steadily improving quality”,it not only analyses its possible real effects from the theoretical and empirical levels,but also tries to reveal the possible mechanism of the above impacts;in terms of measurement methods and data usage,on the one hand,based on the input-output table,this paper uses the consumption coefficient matrix,Leontief inverse matrix,value-added matrix,etc.to measure the length of the domestic and international production splits,which is an innovative way to quantitatively measure the dual-circulation;on the other hand,in contrast to the previous studies of the dual-circulation that stayed on the panel data at the national level,the object of this paper’s research is further refined to the provincial and industry levels to carry out a more detailed study.The research in this paper not only helps to expand and deepen the understanding of the influencing factors of China’s utilization of FDI,but also provides policy insights for government departments on how to continuously improve the supporting capacity of the industries that utilize FDI and cultivate new advantages in attracting and gathering FDI under the new situation from the specific perspective of the new development pattern of the dual circulation.