深度不确定性与基层政府适应:一种双重适应模式构建与实证

Deep Uncertainty and Grassroots Government Adaptation:A Dual Adaptation Model Construction and Empirical Study

基层政府作为政府体系中应急响应的第一主体,不得不面对跨界危机带来的深度不确定性。以跨界危机衍生的深度不确定性为起点的基层政府危机响应行为,受到责任驱动模式和风险驱动模式的驱动,基层政府在危机认知、沟通、协同以及控制等功能上呈现出双重适应的特点。以中国K县在新发传染病危机孵化阶段的响应行为为例的实证研究表明,K县的危机响应行为受到双重模式共同驱动和塑造,在认知、沟通、协同及控制功能上,责任驱动模式和风险驱动模式之间呈现出聚合、并行、挤出的关系,从而形塑出跨界危机孵化阶段的基层政府双重适应模式。

As the first respondent to emergencies in the government system,the grassroots govern-ments have to face the deep uncertainty caused by transboundary crises.The crisis response behavior of grassroots governments,originating from the deep uncertainty derived from cross-border crises,is affected by the responsibility-driven model and the risk-driven model.Grassroots governments show dual adaptive characteristics in their functions of crisis recognition,communication,collaboration,and control.An em-pirical study taking the response behavior of China′s K County during the incubation stage of the emer-ging infectious disease crisis as an example shows that the crisis response behavior of K County is jointly driven and shaped by dual models.In terms of the cognition,communication,collaboration and control functions,there exists a relationship of convergence,parallelism,and extrusion between the responsibili-ty-driven model and the risk-driven model,thus shaping the dual adaptation model of grassroots govern-ments in the incubation stage of transboundary crises.