银行全要素生产率测算与金融高质量发展

Total Factor Productivity of the Chinese Banking Sector and High-quality Development of the Financial Sector

银行高质量发展是金融高质量发展的重要方面,如何对其有效衡量是一个重要问题。银行全要素生产率(TFP)反映了要素投入的利用效率,可以作为衡量银行高质量发展的有效指标。本文根据我国2008-2021年分年、分机构、分省份的商业银行数据(全部大型、股份制和城商行),使用双曲线距离函数(HDF)和随机前沿分析(SFA)方法,系统测算了分省、分机构的银行TFP。研究发现:(1)2009—2021年我国银行业TFP增长率呈多个V型走势且几乎每年都大于0,平均TFP增长率为2.16%,体现出较高的发展质量,2016—2021年的平均TFP增长率高于2009—2015年。(2)技术进步是我国银行业TFP增长的最重要来源且呈逐年上升趋势,其次是规模效率改善,再次是生产效率改善。(3)大型银行的TFP增长率几乎历年最高,且技术进步率和规模效率改善具有明显优势,体现出更高的发展质量,主力军和“压舱石”作用更加凸显。(4)2013年以来东部地区银行业TFP增长率几乎历年最高且技术进步率和规模效率改善优势明显,西部地区银行业TFP增长率几乎历年最低。本文对更好地推动我国金融高质量发展、加快建设金融强国具有一定参考意义。

The financial sector is the lifeblood of a nation’s economy and a crucial component of a nation’s core competitiveness.The central financial work conference held on October 2023 stressed efforts to accelerate the building of a nation with a strong financial sector,remain committed to the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics,and boost the high-quality development of its financial sector to provide strong support for fully building China into a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation through Chinese modernization.High-quality development of the financial sector is crucial to Chinese modernization and now and in the near future,is a significant theme for the work in the financial sector.In China,the banking sector plays a crucial role in the financial system.By the end of Q32023,banking institutions’assets accounted for more than 90%of the financial institutions.Promoting high-quality development of the banking sector and effectively measuring its development quality are both crucial aspects.The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China stressed efforts to raise total factor productivity(TFP),which is an indicator of high-quality development.Similarly,we could use banking productivity(TFP)to measure its development quality.Calculating banking TFP is usually based on the research of banking efficiency.In the past decade or so,the literature on banking efficiency in China based on frontier analysis(stochastic frontier analysis(SFA)or data envelopment analysis(DEA))has documented invaluable findings.However,little research examines banking TFP at the provincial level,due to the lack of detailed data on banks at the provincial level.Against this backdrop,this study systematically examines banking TFP at a bank-year-provincial level over the period 2008—2021,applying SFA and the hyperbolic distance function(HDF)approach to a unique provincial-level dataset with inputs and outputs(including undesirable outputs)selected from multiple dimensions.The main findings are as follows.First,over the sample period(2009—2021),the average banking TFP growth rate is 2.16%,exhibiting multiple V-shaped trends with positive annual growth rates in most years.The average TFP growth rate during 2016—2021 is higher than that in 2009—2015.Second,the TFP growth of the Chinese banking sector is mainly driven by accelerated technological progress,followed by improved scale efficiency and technical efficiency.Third,large banks(big four)enjoy the highest average TFP growth rate in most years,and outperform other banks in terms of technological progress and improvement in scale efficiency.Fourth,since 2013,banks in the eastern region have had the highest average TFP growth rate in most years and the opposite is true for banks in the western region.Banks in the eastern region perform better in terms of technological progress and improvement in scale efficiency.On average(2009—2021),the eastern provincial-level regions lead the race in TFP growth rate while the western and northeast ones are at the bottom.Fifth,banking technical efficiency(production efficiency)has been declining,regardless of bank types and regions,but since 2015,the downtrend has slowed down.Banks in the eastern region have the lowest technical efficiency,while the gaps across regions have widened.Sixth,the average return to scale(scale elasticity)has increased for all types of banks with joint-stock commercial banks(JSCBs)and city commercial banks(CCBs)outperforming large banks.The average return to scale of banks has increased across the regions—highest in the western region and lowest in the eastern region.The return to scale is smaller than 1 for all large banks(big four),but on average greater than 1 for about a quarter of JSCBs and 70%of CCBs.To promote high-quality development of the financial sector,and boost TFP growth of the banking sector in the future,some suggestions are provided.It is essential to uphold serving the real economy as the fundamental mission of the financial sector and advance FinTech innovations and digitization.Furthermore,efforts should be made to improve institutional positioning,and support large state-owned banking institutions in becoming stronger and better,so as to enable them to play a major role in serving the real economy and be a cornerstone for financial stability;enforce strict admission standards and regulatory requirements for small and medium-sized financial institutions;and comprehensively strengthen financial regulation and effectively forestall and defuse financial risks.