基于Maxent和ArcGIS加拿大一枝黄花适生区预测

Prediction of Suitable Growing Areas of Solidago canadensis L.Based on Maxent and ArcGIS

为了研究加拿大一枝黄花在中国的适生区及其分布影响因素,以利于有效防控,采用最大熵模型(Maxent)和ArcGIS软件对加拿大一枝黄花2041—2060、2061—2080气候模式下在中国的潜在适生区进行预测。结果显示:当前适生区预测AUC值为0.933,模型预测结果理想;适生区分布主要受气温和降水影响;潜在适生区主要分布在华东和华中地区,以上海市全域、江苏省中南部、安徽省中部、江西省北部、湖南省东部、湖北省东部以及浙江省部分地区和沿海海岸线为主。随着时间推移,2041—2060年相比较于当前,高、中适生区的面积增加106.04万km^(2),低适生区增加110.62万km^(2);2061—2080年,高、中适生区的面积与当前相比增加110.99万km^(2),低适生区增加111.55万km^(2)。总体来说,未来气候变化下,加拿大一枝黄花的适生区呈现出不断扩张的趋势,建议相关部门基于其潜在适生区的变化趋势制定响应的分级管理策略,以防止进一步扩散。

To study the suitable growth areas and distribution influencing factors of Solidago canadensis L.in China for effective prevention and control,the Maximum Entropy model(Maxent)and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential habitat of Solidago canadensis L.in China under current and future(2041—2060 and 2061—2080)climate models.The results showed that the predicted AUC value of the current fitness zone was 0.933 and the model prediction results were ideal;the distribution of the fitness zone was mainly influenced by the maximum temperature and precipitation;the potential fitness zone was mainly distributed in east and central China,mainly in the whole area of Shanghai,south-central Jiangsu Province,central Anhui Province,northern Jiangxi Province,eastern Hunan Province,eastern Hubei Province,and some parts of Zhejiang Province and the area along the coastline.Over time,from 2041 to 2060,the area of the middle and high fitness zones will increase by 1060400 km^(2) and the low fitness zone will increase by 1106200 km^(2) compared with the present;from 2061 to 2080,the area of the high and middle fitness zones will increase by 1109900 km^(2) and the low fitness zone will increase by 1115500 km^(2) compared with the present.Overall,under future climate change,the habitat zone of Solidago canadensis L.shows a trend of continuous expansion,and it is suggested that the relevant authorities should develop a responsive hierarchical management strategy based on the changing trend of its potential habitat zone to prevent further spread.