1984年~2018年四卯酉河径流演变规律及归因分析

Analysis on the Evolution Law and Attribution of Runoff in the Simaoyou River from 1984to2018

为揭示四卯酉河径流演规律及其影响因素,基于四卯酉闸水文站1984年~2018年的实测径流数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、Pettitt检验法、Morlet小波分析法分析四卯酉河年际变化规律,采用不均匀系数、集中度与集中期三个指标分析四卯酉河径流年内分配规律,采用双累积曲线定量分析四卯酉河径流演变原因。结果表明:四卯酉河径流量呈现显著上升趋势,并于2004年发生显著向上突变,径流主周期为28 a、18 a、13 a、9 a;四卯酉河径流年内分配较为均匀;降水因子和人类活动因子对四卯酉河径流变化贡献率分别为3.3%、96.7%,人类活动引起的不透水面的变化是导致四卯酉河径流变化的重要原因。

In order to reveal the runoff evolution law of the Simaoyou River and its influencing factors,based on the measured runoff data of the Simaoyou Sluice Hydrological Station from 1984 to 2018,Mann Kendall test,Pettitt test and Morlet wavelet analysis are used to analyze the interannual variation law of the Simaoyou River,and the annual distribution law of the runoff of the Simaoyou River is analyzed by using three indicators:non-uniformity coefficient,concentration ratio and concentration period,Quantitative analysis of the causes of runoff evolution in the Simaoyou River using double cumulative curves.The results show that the runoff of the Simaoyou River shows a significant upward trend,and a significant upward mutation occurred in 2004.The main runoff period is 28,18,13,and 9 years;The annual distribution of the runoff of the Simaoyou River is relatively uniform;The contribution rates of precipitation factors and human activity factors to the changes in runoff of the Simaoyou River are 3.3%and 96.7%,respectively.The changes in impermeable water surface caused by human activities are important reasons for the changes in runoff of the Simaoyou River.