基于大数据分析的灌区配水渠道流量预测分析研究

Forecast and Analysis of Water Distribution Channel Flow in Irrigation Area Based on Big Data Analysis

为提升灌区配水渠道流量预测效果,有效指导灌区水资源管理,研究基于大数据分析的灌区配水渠道流量预测分析方法。以玛河灌区的玛纳斯县灌区为研究工程,在灌区配水渠道上下游分别安装水位计采集配水渠道水位信息,通过RTU终端汇总水位信息后,通过GPRS无线通信传输至上位机流量预测终端,流量预测终端利用大数据分析技术构建基于粒子群优化支持向量机(PSO-SVM)的流量预测模型,以水位信息为模型输入,输出灌区配水渠道流量预测结果。分析研究结果显示:该方法可有效预测灌区配水渠道流量,且流量预测结果与实际流量之间的相对误差较小。该方法具备灌区配水渠道流量预测实际应用性,可为灌区水资源规划提供数据基础。

In order to improve the prediction effect of water distribution channel flow in irrigation areas and effectively guide the management of water resources in irrigation areas,the prediction and analysis method of water distribution channel flow in irrigation areas based on Big data analysis was studied.Taking the Manas County irrigation area of Mahe irrigation area as the research project,water level meters are installed at the upstream and downstream of the distribution channels in the irrigation area to collect water level information of the distribution channels.After collecting water level information through RTU terminals,the water level information is transmitted to the upper computer flow prediction terminal through GPRS wireless communication.The flow prediction terminal uses Big data analysis technology to build a flow prediction model based on Particle swarm optimization support vector machine(PSO-SVM),and takes water level information as the model input,Output the predicted flow rate of the distribution channel in the irrigation area.The analysis and research results show that this method can effectively predict the flow rate of water distribution channels in irrigation areas,and the relative error between the predicted flow rate and the actual flow rate is small.This method has practical applicability in predicting the flow of water distribution channels in irrigation areas,and can provide a data basis for water resource planning in irrigation areas.