广东省农业碳排放时空演化特征及影响因素分析

基于2007—2021年统计数据,测度广东省农业碳排放量;利用Tapio脱钩模型和多元线性面板数据回归模型探讨广东省农业碳排放与其经济发展间的脱钩关系及影响广东省农业碳排放的主要因素。研究结果表明,广东省农业碳排放量呈先增加后减少的宽“V”字型特征,整体上有下降态势,可分为2个明显阶段;碳排放量及排放强度地市差异显著;广东省农业生态生产效率较高,各年份基于处于强脱钩或弱脱钩状态;各地市则都处于强脱钩或弱脱钩状态;影响广东省农业碳排放的主要因素有农业经济发展水平、城镇化水平、工业化水平、农业产业结构及财政支农比重等。

Based on the statistical data from 2007 to 2021,the agricultural carbon emissions in Guangdong Province are measured,and the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and its economic development and the main factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Guangdong Province are discussed by using Tapio decoupling model and multiple linear panel data regression model.The results showed that:Agricultural carbon emissions in Guangdong province exhibit a wide"V"-shaped feature of first increasing and then decreasing,and showed a downward trend on the whole,which could be divided into two distinct stages.There are significant differences in carbon emission and emission intensity between cities and regions.The agricultural eco-production efficiency of Guangdong province was high,the decoupling relationship in different years were in the state of strong or weak decoupling,and the decoupling relationship of 21cities were in a strong or weak decoupling state.The main factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Guangdong province include the development level of agricultural economy,the level of urbanization,the level of industrialization,the structure of agricultural industry and the proportion of financial support to agriculture.