中国与美国氦气地质条件和资源潜力对比及启示

Comparison and enlightenment of helium geological conditions and resource potential between China and the United States

鉴于氦气资源的战略重要性、美国氦气资源条件的优越性及目前中国氦气供需矛盾的严峻性,开展中国与美国氦气地质条件和资源潜力对比显得极为有意义。通过对比中国与美国氦气的地质条件、资源量和储量数据,基于氦气产量历史数据,结合全球氦气需求分析,采用哈伯特模型、高斯模型和资源量-储量约束下的产量预测模型,开展2023—2030年全球氦气产量预测,为中国氦气勘探开发工作提供参考。分析结果:(1)与美国所在的北美地台规模大且构造稳定相比,中国地台规模小且经历多期构造演化,中国氦气分布呈现点多、面广、类型多样的特点;(2)尽管目前国内外对中国氦气的资源量有不同认识,通过对中国与美国含氦天然气资源潜力的对比,表明中国氦气资源丰富,资源量将会随着对氦气勘探程度和认识程度的不断加深而动态增长;(3)预测显示,2023—2025年为中国氦气生产起步发展阶段,2026—2030年为快速增长阶段;(4)对中国氦气勘探开发的4点启示:坚定中国氦气勘探开发的信心、提出并完善适合中国地质条件的氦气富集理论、加大研发氦气勘探开发技术、2030年前中国氦气供应来自国际和中国国内2个渠道。

Due to the strategic importance of helium resources,the superiority of helium resource conditions in the United States of America(USA),and the severity of current helium supply and demand contradiction in China,it is of great significance to conduct a comparison of helium geological conditions and resource potential between China and the USA.By comparing the geological conditions,resources,and reserves data of helium between China and the USA,based on historical helium production data and combined with global helium demand analysis,the Hubbert model,Gaussian model,and resource reserve constrained production prediction models are used to predict global,US,and China's helium production from 2023 to 2030,providing reference for China’s helium exploration and development work.(1)Compared with the North American platform where the USA is located,the Chinese platform is relatively small and has undergone multiple stages of tectonic evolution.The distribution of helium in China shows the characteristics of"multiple points,wide areas,and diverse types".(2)Although there are different understandings of China's helium resources both domestically and internationally,by comparing potential of natural gas resources containing helium between China and the USA,it is shown that China has abundant helium resources,and the amount of resources will dynamically increase with the deepening of exploration and understanding of helium.(3)The prediction shows that China's helium production is in the initial development stage from 2023 to 2025,and in the rapid growth stage from 2026 to 2030.(4)There are four enlightenments to China's helium exploration and development,strengthening China's confidence in helium exploration and development,proposing and improving helium enrichment theories suitable for China's geological conditions,increasing research and development of helium exploration and development technologies,and supplying helium from both international and domestic channels before 2030.