综合威慑视域下四方安全机制的发展脉络分析

An Analysis of the Development Context of the Quad from the Perspective of Integrated Deterrence

四方安全机制在2017年重启之后,于2021年以领导人峰会模式固定下来,成为影响印太地区安全秩序的重要多边机制。同样在2021年,美国提出综合威慑,并将其视为美国国防战略的基石。此后,四方安全机制的演进与综合威慑形成高度一致,即遏制中国崛起、主导印太地区秩序并扩大国际影响。在具体行为上,四方安全机制也遵循了综合威慑的逻辑,即增强军备实力、提升与盟友的互操作性、编排对华政治叙事,这对中国的国家安全和中国周边地区的和平稳定提出了新的挑战。中国需要在内部保持好战略定力,在外部支持东盟的中心地位,同时不断提升政治叙事能力,从而对冲四方安全机制所带来的安全风险。

Since its restart in 2017,the Quad has been formalized through a leaders’summit in 2021,solidifying its status as a crucial multilateral mechanism shaping the security landscape in the Indo-Pacific region.In 2021,the United States proposed integrated deterrence as the cornerstone of its defense strategy.Subsequently,the evolution of the Quad is highly consistent with the formation of integrated deterrence aiming to contain China’s rise,shape the Indo-Pacific regional order,and expand international influence.In specific actions,the Quad also adheres to the logic of integrated deterrence,namely enhancing military capacities,enhancing interoperability with allies,and arranging political narratives against China.This presents new challenges to China’s national security and peace and stability of its surrounding regions.China needs to maintain strategic composure internally,support ASEAN’s central role externally,and continuously enhance its political narrative capabilities to mitigate the security risks posed by the Quad.