高校人文社科“项目制”的绩效评估及逻辑反思——基于联立方程与BP人工神经网络

Performance Evaluation and Logical Reflection on the"Project System"of Humanities and Social Sciences in Universities:Based on Simultaneous Equations and BP Artificial Neural Network

中国的人文社科研究目前以项目制为主,对于项目制的绩效问题更多集中在微观层面,缺乏宏观实证研究。文章构建一种全新的分析框架,基于中国“双一流”建设高校的科研数据,综合应用联立方程、BP人工神经网络和贝叶斯向量自回归等多种方法分析科研项目、科研人员和科研经费等变量之间的互动关系。实证结果表明,中国人文社科项目制的总体绩效不高;科研经费的绩效有待提高;科研人员的绩效水平总体较高;科研人员、科研经费对科研项目的影响显著,学术论文对科研项目的正向反馈明显。最后指出,人文社科项目制需要进行反思和改进,要努力提高科研经费的分配体制,全方位调动广大人文社科工作者的积极性。

The research of humanities and social sciences is mainly based on the project system.The performance problems of the project system are more concentrated on the micro level,lacking macro empirical research.The article takes the double-first-class construction universities of the Ministry of Education as an example,and constructs a new analytical framework.The interaction between variables such as research projects,researchers and research funding is analyzed through the synthetic application of simultaneous equation,BP artificial neural network and Bayesian vector autoregression.The empirical results show that the overall performance of project system in humanities and social sciences is not high;the performance of research funds needs to be improved;the performance of researchers is generally high;the influence of researchers and research funds on research projects is significant,and the positive feedback from academic papers to research projects is obvious.Finally,it is pointed out that the humanities and social sciences project system needs reflection and improvement.It is necessary to strive to improve the allocation system of research funds and mobilize the enthusiasm of the majority of humanities and social sciences workers.