不动产供给结构优化对经济增长的影响机理与实证检验——基于创新产出的中介作用

The Mechanism and Empirical Test of the Impact of Real Estate Supply Structure Optimization on Economic Growth:Based on the Intermediary Effect of Innovation Output

不动产供给结构优化会通过创新产出促进城市经济发展。本文从供给侧出发,建立了城市不动产供给结构指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型测算不动产供给结构优化度,构建了包括最终产品生产部门、中间产品生产部门、创新部门和家庭部门的一般均衡模型,揭示了不动产供给结构优化对经济增长的影响机理。在实证中,选取中国2008-2016年34个都市圈中心城市不动产供给结构的存量数据,实证检验了创新产出中介作用下不动产供给结构优化对经济增长的影响效应。结果表明,创新产出在不动产供给结构优化和经济增长之间有正向的中介作用;东部城市的不动产供给结构优化度对经济增长影响不显著,而中西部城市的不动产供给结构优化度对经济增长有显著的正向促进作用;最后提出了不动产供给结构协调发展的政策建议。

The optimization of real estate supply structure can promote urban economic development by innovation output.The index system for the supply structure of urban real estate is established based on the supply side,the optimization of the development of the real estate supply structure are measured by the coupling coordination degree mode.The general equilibrium model including the final product production department,intermediate product production department,innovation department and household department is constructed to reveal the impact mechanism of the optimization of the real estate supply structure on economic growth.In empirical research,the effect of optimization of real estate supply structure on economic growth under the intermediary effect of innovation output is tested by using the stock data of the real estate supply structure of 34 metropolitan central cities in China from 2008 to 2016.The results show that there is a positive intermediary effect of innovation output between the real estate supply structure and economic growth,and the effect of the optimization degree of real estate supply structure on economic growth is unobvious in the eastern cities,but that is obvious in the middle and western cities.Finally,suggestions on coordinated development of real estate structure are proposed.