空铁联运对城市经济发展的影响——基于理论分析和长三角地区的实证检验

The Impact of Air-Rail Intermodality on Urban Economic Development——Theoretical Analysis and Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta Region

空铁联运在我国是一种新兴的运输组织模式,本文从理论探究和实证分析两个角度对空铁联运的经济效应进行了研究,以期为空铁联运的规划和城市经济发展提供依据。首先在戴蒙得模型的基础上构建消费者效用函数,由一般均衡分析得到研究假设,然后基于长三角地区33座地级市的面板数据,分别以城市GDP增长率和产业结构作为衡量经济发展的指标进行实证验证。通过构建渐进式双重差分模型实证检验了空铁联运的开通对城市经济增速和产业结构的影响效应,构建直接效应模型和异质性DID模型验证了空铁联运开通对城市经济发展的内在作用机制。研究结果表明:空铁联运的开通能够显著提升长三角地区城市的GDP增速,且有助于当地产业结构的调整和升级;空铁联运影响经济发展的机制在于空铁联运能显著促进就业水平和技术创新从而推动了城市经济发展。

Air-rail intermodality(ARI)is a burgeoning mode of transportation organization in China,and its impact on urban economic development determines the future guidelines and development of ARI,this paper discusses the economic effects of ARI from the perspectives of theoretical exploration and empirical analysis.Firstly,we build a consumer utility function by the light of the Dimond Model and propose research hypotheses through general equilibrium analysis.Secondly,based on the panel data of 33 cities in China's Yangtze River Delta region,we select the city's GDP growth rate and industrial structure as indicators to measure economic development,as well as the continuous difference-in-difference(DID)method is adopted to investigate the impact of ARI entry on urban economic development.Thirdly,we use a direct effect model and a heterogeneous DID model to examine the intrinsic mechanism of the opening of ARI on urban economic development.Our results show that the entry of ARI has a significant positive impact on the GDP growth rate of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region and is positively associated with the adjustment and upgrading of the local industrial structure.In addition,the mechanism by which ARI influences economic development is that it can significantly stimulate employment and technical innovation,thereby promoting urban economic development.