气候变化下3种冬青属植物的适生区预测

Prediction of Suitable Areas for 3 Species of Ilex Under Climate Change

根据现有的物种记录和环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型,预测了大果冬青、小果冬青和铁冬青在过去、现在和未来的潜在适生区。结果表明:最冷月份最低温度、日温度平均范围与土壤类型均为影响3种冬青分布的关键环境变量。大果冬青的适生区面积由现在到2070年减少了约30.27%;小果冬青的适生区面积由现在到2070年减少了约8.59%;铁冬青的适生区面积由现在到2070年减少了约6.43%。大果冬青与小果冬青未来的分布均有往北扩张的趋势,铁冬青没有明显的扩张。整体来看,全球气候变化导致3种冬青适生区面积缩小,需要建立有效的管理策略来应对这一变化。

Based on existing species records and environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was used to predict the past,present and future potential suitable areas for Ilex macrocarpa,I.micrococca and I.rotunda.The results showed that the minimum temperature in the coldest month,average range of daily temperature and soil type were the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of the 3 species of Ilex.The suitable area of I.macrocarpa will decrease by 30.27% from present to 2070;the suitable area of I.micrococca will decrease by 8.59%from present to 2070;the suitable area of I.rotunda will decrease by about 6.43% from present and 2070.In the future,the distribution of I.macrocarpa and I.micrococca will expand to the north,but there is no obvious expansion of I.rotunda.Overall,global climate change has led to the reduction of the suitable areas for the 3 species of Ilex,and effective management strategies are needed to cope with this change.