基于关键气象因子的山东省棉花产量预报

Cotton Yield Forecast in Shandong Province Based on Meteorological Key Factors

棉花是山东省重要的经济作物,其生长发育和产量形成与气象条件密切相关,开展棉花产量预报对山东省经济安全具有重要意义。利用山东省1990-2020年棉花产量资料及同期山东省17个气象站的逐日平均气温、降水量和日照时数,通过膨化处理及相关分析确定影响山东省棉花产量的关键气象因子,建立以候为时间步长的山东省棉花产量动态预报模型。将全省划分为4个区域,利用模型对全省及各区域1990-2016年棉花产量进行回代检验,对2017-2020年棉花产量进行试报。结果表明,模型回代检验全省平均准确率为94.1%,各区域检验准确率在87.3%~94.1%之间;预报准确率全省平均为95.1%,鲁南、鲁中、鲁西北、鲁东地区预报平均准确率分别为92.1%、91.5%、91.5%、90.9%。研究结果为山东省棉花产量的定量、动态、精细化预报提供理论依据。

Cotton is an important cash crop in Shandong Province,and its growth and yield formation are closely related to meteorological conditions.It’s significant to carry out cotton yield prediction for economic security in Shandong Province.Based on the cotton yield data in Shandong Province from 1990 to 2020,the daily average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours from 17 meteorological stations during the same period,the meteorological key factors affecting cotton yield were determined by means of factor puffing and correlation analysis,and a dynamic forecast model of cotton yield with every five days as the time step in Shandong Province was established.The province was divided into 4 regions,and the forecast model of cotton yield was tested during 1990-2016 and was applied during 2017-2020.The results showed that the average trend back-testing accuracy was 94.1%in the province,and ranged from 87.3%to 94.1%in different regions.The forecast accuracy of cotton yield during 2017-2020 was 95.1%in Shandong Province,and was 92.1%,91.5%,91.5%,and 90.9%in southern region,central region,northwestern region and eastern region of Shandong,respectively.The results of this study provided a theoretical basis for the quantitative,dynamic,and refined prediction of cotton yield in Shandong Province.