数字经济与地方财政可持续性:耦合协调与空间溢出检验

Digital Economy and Local Fiscal Sustainability:Coupling Coordination and Spatial Spillover Tests

数字经济和地方财政可持续性分别作为国家发展战略的重要安排和国家现代化治理的主要内容,二者的协调发展对于“十四五”全面建设社会主义现代化国家具有重要的理论意义。基于2011—2020年我国30个省(区、市)的面板数据构建了数字经济与地方财政可持续性发展的测算指标体系,在此基础上运用熵权法测算了各地区数字经济发展与地方财政可持续性系统的耦合协调度。并对二者耦合协调度和影响因素进行了空间溢出效应检验和区域异质性检验,结果发现:数字经济发展与财政可持续性具有较强耦合协调关系;且这种耦合协调关系具有显著的区域异质性和空间溢出特征。同时,经济发展水平、对外开放水平、产业结构、科技创新水平、政府干预度、财政自主度等因素通过直接和间接效应影响了本地区和相邻地区的耦合协调水平且区域差异明显。基于以上结论,从把握数字化经济发展机遇,发挥地区比较优势以及加强地区间数字经济的交流和合作等方面提出政策建议,以期为“十四五”推进各地区数字经济和地方财政可持续性的协调发展,纾解地方政府财政压力提供有益的经验参考。

Digital economy and local financial sustainability are the important arrangements of national development strategy and the main contents of national modernization governance,respectively.The coordinated development of the two has important theoretical significance for building a modern socialist country in all respects during the 14th Five-Year Plan.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2011 to 2020,a measurement index system of digital economy and local financial sustainability was constructed.On this basis,the entropy weight method was used to measure the coupling coordination degree of digital economy development and local financial sustainability system in each region.The spatial spillover effect test and regional heterogeneity test are carried out on the coupling coordination degree and influencing factors of the two.The results show that digital economy development and financial sustainability have a strong coupling coordination relationship;This coupling coordination relationship has significant regional heterogeneity and spatial spillover characteristics.At the same time,the level of economic development,the level of opening up,the industrial structure,the level of scientific and technological innovation,the degree of government intervention,the degree of financial autonomy and other factors affect the coupling coordination level of the region and neighboring regions through direct and indirect effects,and the regional differences are obvious.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward policy suggestions from the aspects of grasping the development opportunities of digital economy,giving full play to regional comparative advantages and strengthening the exchanges and cooperation of digital economy among regions,in order to provide useful experience reference for promoting the coordinated development of digital economy and local fiscal sustainability in various regions and relieving the financial pressure of local governments during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period.