基于ARIMAX的风电功率预测研究

Research on Wind Wlectric Power Prediction Based on ARIMAX

一次能源的波动特性给电网带来了许多麻烦,使得大量的风电、光伏都不能被充分利用,风电功率预测技术作为有效应对风电接入的关键技术之一,对指导系统调度运行、风电场生产安排具有十分重大的意义。基于ARIMAX建立了风电功率预测模型,并采用实测数据对模型有效性进行验证。研究结果表明,将风速作为外因变量,利用历史风电功率数据可以对未来短时风电功率进行较为准确的预测。

The fluctuation characteristics of primary energy have brought a lot of troubles to the power grid,which makes a large number of wind power and photovoltaic power cannot be fully utilized.As one of the key technologies to effectively deal with wind power access,the wind power prediction technology has been of great significance to guide the dispatching operation of the system and the production arrangement of wind farms.In this paper,the wind power prediction model based on ARIMAX and used the measured data to verify the validity.The results show that using the wind speed as the external variable can predict the future short-term wind power accurately by using the historical wind power data.