建立中国—孟加拉国自贸区的经济效应研究

A Study on the Economic Effects of Establishing the China Bangladesh Free Trade Zone

文章在中国与孟加拉国贸易现状分析的基础上,运用一般均衡模型研究中国和孟加拉国建立自贸区对双边经济、贸易、福利水平及行业产出的影响。结果表明:中国与孟加拉国双边贸易关系总体紧密,双方在劳动密集型制成品方面有极强的比较优势。贸易自由化将促进双方的国内生产总值、社会福利、进出口总额的增加,关税及非关税壁垒的减免对产业的影响各异。此外,自贸区的建成将可能加剧孟加拉国贸易逆差的现状。孟加拉国可通过增加对中国出口产品的多样性、提升产品竞争力来减少贸易逆差,也可通过吸收中国的对外直接投资减少贸易失衡的影响。中孟双方可通过增加政治互信、健全执行协商机制等途径加快自贸区建设的进程。

Based on the analysis of the current trade situation between China and Bangladesh,this paper uses the general equilibrium model to study the impact of the establishment of a free trade area between China and Bangladesh on bilateral economy,trade,welfare level and industry output.The results show that the bilateral trade relationship between China and Bangladesh is generally close,and the two sides have a strong comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufactured goods.Trade liberalization will promote an increase in GDP,social welfare,total imports and exports,and the impact of tariff and non-tariff barrier relief on industries will vary.In addition,the completion of the free trade zone will likely worsen Bangladesh's terms of trade.Bangladesh can reduce its trade deficit by increasing the diversity and competitiveness of its exports to China,and also reduce the impact of trade imbalances by absorbing China's outward direct investment.Both sides can accelerate the process of building a free trade zone by increasing political mutual trust and improving the implementation consultation mechanism.