中国城市物流发展潜力评价及空间自相关演化

Evaluation and Spatial Autocorrelation Evolution of Logistics Development Potential of Chinese Cities

对于中国城市物流发展潜力的充分认识有助于优化我国物流发展布局,提高物流效率。但是在现有的研究中缺乏对于中国城市物流发展潜力的认识。基于此,通过对2009-2021年中国284个地级及以上城市的物流发展潜力进行评价,并运用空间自相关的研究方法,对2009-2021年中国城市物流发展潜力的变化情况以及空间自相关的演化情况进行了分析,得到以下研究结论:目前我国城市物流发展潜力现状表现为东高西低,京津冀、成渝、长三角、珠三角表现优异,总体呈现十字型布局,以武汉、郑州为代表的中部城市正在崛起;在此期间,中国城市物流发展潜力总体处于缓慢增长的态势,但是城市之间的差距依然非常大;中国城市物流发展潜力总体呈现集聚情况,这种集聚总体呈现出先增高再减小的趋势;中国城市物流发展潜力集聚情况总体变动较小,并且大多数城市处于LL(低低)集聚之中,HH(高高)集聚型城市数量有所增加。

The 20th CPC National Congress has put forward new requirements for the logistics industry,which also provides new opportunity for the further development of the industry.Under the new develop⁃ment requirements,fully understanding the development potential and evolution pattern of the logistics indus⁃try in Chinese cities is an important prerequisite for the rational layout planning,efficiency bolstering and waste reduction of the logistics industry.Based on this observation,by going over the available domestic and foreign literature on urban logistics de⁃velopment potential and logistics field theory,and seeing that the logistics development potential of a city is not only affected by its intrinsic attributes,but also to a great extent by the situation of its neighboring cities,we es⁃tablished the evaluation model of the logistics development potential of Chinese cities based on the urban de⁃velopment potential evaluation model.With 284 cities at or above the prefecture level in China from 2009 to 2021 as the sample,we selected 7 economic data relevant to urban logistics capacity,used the entropy weight method to measure the logistics service volume of the cities,and further analyzed the changes and spatial autocorrelated evolution of the logistics development potential of the cities using the evaluation model.The logistics development potential of Chinese cities differs greatly and there is marked regional imbalance among the cities in this respect.The logistics development potential of eastern coastal cities is generally high,while that in the western region is low,showing a pattern of high in the east and low in the west.The cross stripes formed by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Chengdu-Chongqing region,Yangtze River Delta,and Pearl River Delta performs well and central region cities represented by Wuhan and Zhengzhou are on the rise;during this period,the overall logistics development potential of Chinese cities is slowly growing,but the gap between the cities is still very large;the overall logistics development potential of Chinese cities is clustered,generally showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,reaching its apex in 2012;the overall change in the clustering of the logistics development potential of Chinese cities is small,and most cities are in L-L clus⁃tering,and the number of cities in H-H clustering has increased somewhat.The economic scale of the cities in the central,western,and northeastern regions of China is relatively small,limiting the development potential of the logistics industry in these cities.Under such circumstances,they should steadily build their economic foun⁃dation and actively expand domestic demand to promote consumption.The western region should seize the opportunities of the Belt and Road Initiative,and should also strengthen ties with Southeast Asia,South Asia,and Central Asia to promote economic growth,expand domestic demand,drive resident consumption,and fu⁃el the rapid development of the logistics industry.We should make reasonable plans for the logistics develop⁃ment of the Chinese cities,and assign different roles to the regions,select suitable cities to build regional and lo⁃cal logistics node cities under the current planning of national logistics hub cities,give corresponding policy support and resource support to logistics hub cities of different levels,and allow full play to the role that the hub cities should play so as to drive the common prosperity of the cities and regions.