温室无土栽培切花月季生长发育预测模型及其验证

Development and validation of a prediction model for cut rose growth in greenhouse soilless cultivation

【目的】建立一个可以预测温室无土栽培切花月季生长发育时期及收获期的模型,为切花月季生产过程中的环境因子调控提供理论支持。【方法】以生长周期差异明显的3个主栽切花月季品种‘洛神’‘欢乐颂’和‘粉红雪山’为试验材料,无土栽培种植于曲靖市马龙区的塑料温室大棚中,于2021—2022年收集5期的生长发育数据和同期的光照辐射及温度数据。通过分析切花月季的生长周期特征,构建基于生理辐热积(Physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR,PTEP)的切花月季生长发育时期预测模型,并使用独立数据对构建的生长模型进行验证。【结果】切花月季在修剪到萌芽、萌芽到现蕾以及现蕾到收获这3个生长发育阶段所需的生理辐热积分别为22.08、29.41和38.89 MJ/m^(2);本研究所构建的切花月季生长发育时期预测模型基于生理辐热积,在切花月季的各个生长发育阶段,模型的模拟预测值与实测值表现出良好的一致性。1∶1线性回归标准误差(RMSE)分别为0.7、6.5和9.4 d,显示出模型预测的准确性。【结论】通过考虑光照辐射与温度的综合影响,构建的模型能够预测切花月季在不同生长发育阶段的时间点,以及切花产品的收获期。基于该模型,种植者可以更精准地调节温室内的光照与温度,从而在一定程度上调控切花月季产品的生产周期。研究结果将为温室无土栽培切花月季的生产提供科学依据,同时也将为种植者制定切实可行的生产和技术支持。

【Objective】The paper aims to establish a model predicting the growth,development stages,and harvesting period of soilless⁃culti⁃vated greenhouse roses,thereby providing theoretical support for the regulation of environmental factors in the cut rose production process.【Method】In the study,three distinct cut rose varieties with significant differences in growth cycles,namely‘Loshen’‘Huanlesong’and‘Fenhongxueshan’,were selected for soilless cultivation in plastic greenhouse tunnels in Malong district,Qujing city.Data on growth and development were collected over five periods,accompanied by concurrent records of light radiation and temperature during 2021-2022.By analyzing the growth cycle characteristics of cut roses,the study established a predictive model based on the physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR(PTEP)to describe the growth and development stages of cut roses.Subsequently,the constructed growth model was validated using independent data.【Result】Cut roses required physiological thermal accumulations of 22.08,29.41 and 38.89 MJ/m^(2)during the pruning to bud,bud to flowering,and flowering to harvest stages,respectively.The predictive model for the growth and development stages of cut roses,constructed in the study,was based on PTEP.At various growth and development stages of cut roses,the simulated predicted values of the model exhibit good consistency with the measured values.The 1∶1 linear regression standard errors(RMSE)between model⁃predicted values and measured values were 0.7,6.5 and 9.4 days,demonstrating the accuracy of the model predictions.【Conclusion】Considering the combined effects of light radiation and temperature,the model developed in the study can predict the timing of various growth and development stages of cut roses,as well as the harvest period for cut flower products.With this model,growers can make precise adjustments to light and temperature in the greenhouse,effectively regulating the growth cycle of cut rose products.The study not only provides a scientific foundation for the production of cut rose products in greenhouse soilless cultivation but also offers valuable technical support for growers in formulating practical production plans.