强降雨和热浪连续型复合事件对健康影响的流行病学研究进展

Research progress on the health effects of consecutive compound heavy precipitation and heatwave extremes

随着全球气候变化,极端天气事件发生的频率和强度增加,多个极端天气同时或者连续发生形成复合极端事件的可能性也明显增大,给生态环境、社会经济和人群健康带来巨大的危害。本文综述了强降雨和热浪连续型复合事件的变化趋势和对健康的风险,发现目前该类事件尚无统一的定义,可分为强降雨-热浪和热浪-强降雨两个亚类,其历史发生频率和强度均有所增加,未来预估也呈上升趋势。现有的大部分研究显示热浪、强降雨单一气象事件对人健康有负面效应,但强降雨和热浪连续型复合事件对人类健康风险的研究极少,但提示该类事件可明显增加健康风险。本文最后总结了目前研究存在的不足,并对未来研究方向提出了建议,可为深入开展研究提供参考。

With global climate change,the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased,and the possibility of multiple extreme weather events occurring simultaneously or continuously forming compound extreme events has also significantly increased,bringing catastrophic damage to the ecological environment,socio-economic and human health.This study reviewed the changing trends and health risks of consecutive compound heavy precipitation and heatwave extremes.There is currently no unified definition for these types of events,which could be divided into two subcategories:heavy precipitation-heatwave and heatwave-heavy precipitation.Their historical frequency and intensity have increased,and future estimates are also on the rise.The majority of current studies on single extreme events such as heatwaves or heavy precipitation revealed significant adverse health effects.However,few studies focused on the association between compound events of heavy precipitation and heatwave and human health risk.This paper further summarized the current shortcomings in this field and proposed suggestions for future research directions.