中国与“一带一路”共建国家核能国际合作风险评价——基于动态因子分析法

Risk Assessment of China′s International Nuclear Energy Cooperation With"The Belt and Road Initiative"Countries:Based on Dynamic Factor Analysis

基于核能发展需求风险、核能发展条件风险、贸易关系风险、社会稳定性风险、政治风险和经济风险构建了中国与“一带一路”共建国家核能国际合作风险综合评价指标体系,并运用动态因子分析法,探究了中国与101个“一带一路”共建国家核能国际合作风险水平,实现了横向空间差异和纵向动态趋势的全面测评。研究发现:政治风险和经济风险对核能国际合作的影响最大;核能国际合作风险的平均综合得分及排名结果表明,核能国际合作风险在不同“一带一路”共建国家之间存在差异,欧洲国家的核能国际合作风险整体较低,非洲国家的核能国际合作风险整体较高;根据核能国际合作风险动态得分,可将核能国际合作风险划分为上升组、下降组、先升后降组、先降后升组、波动组和平稳组,平稳组国家是中国开展核能国际合作的最佳选择。

Based on the risks associated with nuclear energy development demand,nuclear energy development conditions,trade relations,social stability,and political and economic factors,a comprehensive risk evaluation system is established for nuclear energy cooperation between China and the Belt and Road countries.Using dynamic factor analysis,the study explores the risk levels of nuclear energy cooperation between China and 101 Belt and Road countries,providing a comprehensive assessment of both horizontal spatial differences and vertical dynamic trends.The findings indicate that political and economic risks exert the most significant influence on the comprehensive risk of nuclear energy cooperation.The average comprehensive scores and ranking results of nuclear energy cooperation risks reveal variations among different countries,indicating that nuclear energy cooperation risks differ across nations.Specifically,European countries generally exhibit lower levels of nuclear energy cooperation risks,whereas African countries tend to have higher levels of such risks.Based on the dynamic risk scores,countries can be categorized into rising,falling,rising then falling,falling then rising,fluctuating,and stable groups,with countries in the stable group representing the optimal choices for China to engage in nuclear energy cooperation.