基于蒙特卡洛方法的配电网线路雷击跳闸率计算

Monte Carlo-based Calculation of Lightning Trip Rate in Distribution Lines

雷击是造成配电网线路跳闸的主要因素,现提出基于蒙特卡洛方法来计算雷击跳闸率。通过模拟线路遭受雷击并判断随机变量的值是否满足线路跳闸的条件,对模拟结果进行统计,并通过屏蔽因子进行修正得到雷击跳闸率。同时结合某地区的雷电流幅值概率分布拟合曲线,计算该地区配电网线路的雷击跳闸率,并与IEEE和国标推荐法计算出的雷击跳闸率进行了比较,得出基于蒙特卡洛方法的拟合曲线计算出的雷击跳闸率更接近实际进行统计值,表明所提出的方法相比IEEE和国标推荐法具有较高的准确性。

Lightning strike is a major factor that causes the trips of overhead distribution lines.It is proposed to calculate the lightning trip rate based on the Monte Carlo method.By simulating the line suffering from lightning strikes and judging whether the value of random variables meets the conditions of a line trip,the simulation results are counted,and the lightning trip rate is obtained by correcting the shielding factor.At the same time,the lightning trip rate of distribution lines is calculated in combination with the probability distribution of lightning flow amplitude fitting curve,which is thus compared with the lightning trip rate calculated by the IEEE and the national standard recommendation methods with a conclusion that the fitting curve calculated based on the Monte Carlo method is closer to the actual operation statistics,indicating that the proposed method compared with the IEEE and national standard recommendation methods presents a higher accuracy.