分行业信息披露能提高业绩预告质量吗?——基于准自然实验的证据

Does the Information Disclosure by Industries Improve the Quality of Earnings Forecast:Based on Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

分行业信息披露是注册制下高质量监管的重要内容。本文基于沪深交易所分批次颁布行业信息披露指引这一准自然实验构建双重差分模型,实证分析了行业信息披露义务是否改变了公司的策略性信息披露行为。研究发现,要求上市公司披露行业经营性信息能够提高管理层业绩预告质量,且信息透明度、分析师关注度、法制环境、业绩预告属性和经营风险在分行业信息披露对业绩预告质量的影响中发挥着调节作用。会计稳健性和会计信息可比性是潜在机制。本研究有助于理解以行业为属性的信息披露政策对上市公司业绩预告披露行为的影响,同时对完善我国业绩预告制度也有一定的启发。

The information disclosure by industries is a reflection of high-quality regulation under the registration-based IPO system.This paper constructs a difference-in-differences model based on the phased issuance of Industry Information Disclosure Guidelines by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges,which serves as a quasi-natural experiment,to empirically analyze whether the industrial information disclosure obligation changes companies' strategic information disclosure behavior.Our findings suggest that requiring listed companies to disclose industry operational information can improve the quality of the management earnings forecast.Additionally,information transparency,analyst coverage,legal environment,attributes of the earnings forecast,and operational risks play a moderating role in the impact of information disclosure by industries on the quality of earnings forecasts.Accounting conservatism and the comparability of accounting information are potential mechanisms.This study contributes to understanding the impact of industry-specific information disclosure policies on the disclosure behavior of listed companies regarding earnings forecasts and provides insights for improving the earnings forecast system in China.