共同富裕目标下我国农民收入结构优化的效果评价及影响因素分析

Effect evaluation and influencing factors analysis of farmers′income structure optimization in China under the goal of common prosperity

结合共同富裕目标,分别从经济发展、政治基础、社会发展、文化发展、生态环境等5个方面构建农民收入结构优化评价指标体系。运用熵权-TOPSIS模型对2011—2020年我国30个省份(港澳台及西藏地区除外)的农民收入结构优化效果进行综合评价,使用聚类分析法对子系统进行分析,并采用Tobit模型探究农民收入结构优化的影响因素。结果表明:我国农民收入结构优化效果整体处于较低水平,地区间差异化明显;经济发展和社会发展2个子系统的整体发展较为一致,而政治基础、文化发展和生态环境3个子系统的省份之间存在明显差异;农村一二三产业融合发展水平、农村集体经济发展水平、数字基础设施水平、城镇化水平、受教育水平、农业科技化水平、经济发展水平均显著促进农民收入结构优化。据此,提出持续推进农村一二三产业融合发展、大力发展农村集体经济、提升农民受教育水平、加大农业科技投入、发展区域合作等建议。

Combined with the goal of common prosperity,this study constructs an evaluation index system for farmers′income structure optimization from five aspects:economic development,political foundation,social development,cultural development,and ecological environment.It also uses the entropy weight-TOPSIS model to comprehensively evaluate the effect of farmers′income structure optimization in 30 provinces(except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Xizang)in China from 2011 to 2020.Then,the article further uses cluster analysis method to analyze the subsystems and Tobit model to explore the main factors affecting farmers′income structure optimization.The results show that the overall effect of farmers′income optimization structure in China′s is at a relatively low level,with obvious differences among regions.The two subsystems,i.e.economic development and social development,are developing more coherently as a whole.However,there are significant differences among the provinces in terms of the three subsystems of political foundation,cultural development and ecological environment.It is also found that farmers′income structure optimization is significantly influenced by the level of integrated development of rural primary,secondary and tertiary industries,the development level of the rural collective economy,the level of digital infrastructure,the level of urbanization,the level of access to education,the level of scientific and technological development of agriculture,and the level of economic development.Accordingly,suggestions are put forward to accelerate the integrated development of primary,secondary and tertiary industries in rural areas,vigorously develop rural collective economy,improve farmers′education level,increase the investment in agricultural science and technology,and develop regional cooperation.