数字经济、技术创新与制造业转型升级--基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Digital economy,technological innovation and transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry—An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data

基于2014—2021年我国30个省份(港澳台地区及西藏除外)的面板数据进行双向固定效应的基准回归分析,区域异质性和互联网发展水平异质性分析,以及技术创新的中介效应分析,并进一步考察数字经济对制造业转型升级的非线性影响,以及政府支持度和人力资本在数字经济影响制造业转型升级中的门槛效应。研究发现:数字经济对制造业转型升级具有显著的正向影响;技术创新在数字经济对制造业转型升级的影响中发挥部分中介效应;数字经济对制造业转型升级影响的区域异质性和互联网发展水平异质性显著,在东部地区与互联网发展水平高的地区的影响更为显著;数字经济对制造业转型升级存在显著的非线性影响,数字经济对制造业转型升级的影响随着政府支持度的增加呈现出边际效应递减的特征,随着人力资本的增加呈现出倒U型特征。据此,提出加快制造业企业技术创新、完善中西部地区数字基础设施、健全数字化人才队伍等对策,以助推我国制造业转型升级。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China(except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Xizang)from 2014—2021,this study performs a benchmark regression analysis with two-way fixed effects,an analysis of the heterogeneity of regions and the heterogeneity of the level of Internet development,as well as an analysis of the mediating effect of technological innovation.Further,this study examines the nonlinear impact of digital economy on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the threshold effects of government support and human capital in the impact of digital economy on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.It is found that the digital economy has a significant positive impact on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Technological innovation plays a partially mediating effect in the impact of the digital economy on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.There is significant regional heterogeneity and Internet development heterogeneity in the impact of the digital economy on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,and the impact in the eastern region with a high level of Internet development is more significant.There is a significant non-linear impact of the digital economy on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.With the increase of government support,the impact of the digital economy on the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry shows a diminishing marginal effect,and an inverted U-shaped feature with the increase of human capital.Accordingly,countermeasures such as accelerating the technological innovation of manufacturing enterprises,improving the digital infrastructure in central and western regions,and sounding the digitalization talent team are proposed to promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.