货币政策“防风险”与“促发展”的调控效应研究

A Study on the Regulatory Effects of Monetary Policy on“Preventing Risks”and“Promoting Development”

“防风险”与“促发展”是当前金融宏观调控的主要目标。本文运用SV-TVP-SVAR模型详细刻画货币政策不同量价工具的经济金融调控效应,实证检验宏观调控二元目标之间的动态关联机制。研究发现:一方面,量价货币政策对系统性金融风险和实体经济高质量发展均具有显著的、阶段性的影响,数量型货币政策短中长期均具有“防风险”效应,“促发展”效应则体现在短期;价格型货币政策的“防风险”效应主要体现在短期,“促发展”效应体现在中长期;另一方面,系统性金融风险与实体经济高质量发展之间存在着非一致的时变影响关系,表明宏观调控“防风险”与“促发展”之间存在着阶段性矛盾,且二者交互影响的传导机制亦有所不同。因此,应着力疏通货币政策传导,提高金融服务实体经济质效,助力金融强国建设和实体经济高质量发展。

"Preventing risks"and"promoting development"are the main goals of current financial macroeconomic regulation.This article uses the SV-TVP-SVAR model to describe in detail the economic and financial regulatory effects of different quantity and price instruments of monetary policy,and empirically tests the dynamic correlation mechanism between the dual goals of macroeconomic regulation.Research has found that,on the one hand,quantitative monetary policy has a significant and phased impact on systemic financial risks and high-quality development of the real economy.Quantitative monetary policy has a"risk prevention"effect in the short,medium,and long term,while the"development promotion"effect is reflected in the short term;The"risk prevention"effect of price based monetary policy is mainly reflected in the short term,while the"development promotion"effect is reflected in the medium to long term.On the other hand,there is a non-uniform and time-varying relationship between systemic financial risks and high-quality development of the real economy,indicating a phased contradiction between macroeconomic regulation in"risk prevention"and"promoting development",and the transmission mechanism of their interactive effects is also different.Therefore,efforts should be made to unblock the transmission of monetary policy,improve the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy,and assist in the construction of a strong financial country and the high-quality development of the real economy.