重庆市县域农业转型发展时空演化及障碍因素分析

Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Evolution of County Level Agricultural Transformation and Development and its Obstacle Factors in Chongqing Municipality

为推进重庆市农业农村现代化建设,以重庆市中心城区外的29个区县作为研究区,从农业生产主体、农业生产水平、农业投入、农业产业化等4个维度构建研究区县域农业转型发展评价指标体系,结合熵权法、TOPSIS法、空间自相关分析以及障碍度模型分析了2011-2020年研究区县域农业转型发展的时空演化及障碍因素。结果显示:1) 2011-2020年研究区县域农业转型发展水平整体上呈上升态势,各区县农业转型发展综合评价指数的平均值由2011年的0.260 6增长至2020年的0.432 2,且研究区县域农业转型发展过程经历了初步发展、平缓发展、快速发展等3个阶段。2)研究区县域农业转型发展水平最高的区域为渝西片区,其次是渝东片区,再次是渝东南片区,最低的是渝东北片区;高水平农业转型发展的区县数量占比由10.3%增至24.1%。3)研究区县域农业转型发展具有较强的全局自相关性,“高-高”集聚区主要位于渝西片区,“低-低”集聚区主要位于渝东北片区。4)从大的维度上看,渝西和渝东片区县域农业转型发展的主要障碍因素分别是农业产业化和农业投入,而渝东南和渝东北片区县域农业转型发展的主要障碍因素均为农业生产水平和农业生产主体;从具体评价指标上看,农村人均用电量、乡村旅游发展和人均农林牧渔业产值是研究区县域农业转型发展的3个主要障碍因素。上述结果提示2011-2020年研究区县域农业转型发展水平时空分异和农业转型发展障碍因素的区域差异均较为明显。

To promote the modernization of agriculture and rural areas in Chongqing,using 29 districts and counties in Chongqing,excluding the central urban area,as the research area,an evaluation index system for agricultural transformation and development in the research area was constructed from four dimensions:agricultural production entities,agricultural production levels,agricultural inputs,and agricultural industrialization.The spatiotemporal evolution and obstacle factors of agricultural transformation and development in the research area and counties from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed using entropy weight method,TOPSIS method,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and obstacle model.The overall level of agricultural transformation and development in the research area and counties showed an upward trend from 2011 to 2020.The average value of the comprehensive evaluation index for agricultural transformation and development in each area and county increased from 0.260 6 in 2011 to 0.432 2 in 2020.Moreover,the process of agricultural transformation and development in the research area and counties went through three stages:preliminary development,gradual development,and rapid development.The area with the highest level of agricultural transformation and development in the research area is the Yuxi area,followed by the Yudong area,the southeast area,and the northeast area.The proportion of counties with high-level agricultural transformation and development has increased from 10.3% to 24.1%.There is a strong global autocorrelation in the transformation and development of agriculture in the research area.The “high high” agglomeration area is mainly located in the western part of Chongqing,while the “low low” agglomeration area is mainly located in the northeastern part of Chongqing.From a larger perspective,the main obstacles to the transformation and development of county-level agriculture in the western and eastern regions of Chongqing are agricultural industrialization and agricultural investment,while the main obstacles to the transformation and development of county-level agriculture in the southeastern and northeastern regions of Chongqing are agricultural production level and agricultural production entities.From the perspective of specific evaluation indicators,rural per capita electricity consumption,rural tourism development,and per capita agricultural,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishery output value are the three main obstacles to the transformation and development of agriculture in the research area.The above results indicate that from 2011 to 2020,the spatial and temporal differences in the level of agricultural transformation and development and the regional differences in the obstacles to agricultural transformation and development in the study area were relatively significant.