多重三角关系抑或阵营化:国际体系演化逻辑及其前景

Multiple Triangles or Camping:The Logic of the Evolution of the International System and Its Prospects

纵观国际体系演化的历史进程可以发现,多重三角关系和阵营化构成了两种不同的演化逻辑和路径。阵营化造成了集团对抗,或者引发大战,或者陷入冷战;多重三角关系基于议题而形成灵活外交,保持了国际体系的动态平衡。互通-互动是推动国际体系演化的动力,交通、通信等功能型互通-互动扩大了国际体系的规模,最终形成了具有全球广度的国际体系。在功能型互通-互动的推动下,国际体系的广度延伸、密度增强,到19世纪中后期,多元区域性国际体系朝着“全球性”的单一国际体系迈进;而以价值型互通-互动为主导的国际体系朝着阵营化演变,阵营化国际体系的对抗强化了体系阵营内部的凝聚力和等级性。经济社会的发展冲击着阵营化国际体系,多元权力中心的历史性回归为多重三角关系的重构奠定了基础,是未来国际体系的前景之一。

Throughout the historical process of the evolution of the international system,we can find that multiple triangles and camping constitute two different evolutionary logics and paths.Camping has resulted in bloc confrontation,which either triggered a big war or plunged into the Cold War,while multiple triangles have formed flexible diplomacy based on issues,which has maintained the dynamic balance of the international system.Interaction is the driving force behind the evolution of the international system.Functional interaction,such as transportation and communication,expands the scale of the international system,ultimately forming an international system with global breadth.By the mid-to-late 19th century,the multiregional international system was moving towards a "global" single international system,while the international system dominated by value-based interactions evolved towards the formation of camps,and the confrontation of the international system of camps strengthened the cohesion and the hierarchical structure of the system.The economic and social development has impacted on the camped international system,and the historical return of multiple power centers has laid the foundation for the reconstruction of multiple triangular relations,which is one of the prospects of the future international system.