中国省际流动人口年龄模式及其特征——基于省级尺度的类型分析

Age Profiles and Characteristics of Interprovincial Floating Population in China——Type Analysis Based on Provincial Scale

基于全国第七次人口普查微观数据,以流量流动人口为研究对象,在描述中国各省区省际流出与流入人口年龄别流动率的基础上,结合聚类分析方法,类型化分析了中国31个省区的年龄别流出率和年龄别流入率,并进一步结合各省总省际流入率与流出率综合性地提炼出五种类型。分析结果表明,各省的省际流动人口年龄别流动率存在较大差异;四类流出模式和五类流入模式可以概括省际流动人口的年龄别流动率模式;结合各省总的流出率与流入率则可以将各省的年龄模式综合为五种类型。这些结果可以作为未来区域性人口预测的相关参数。最后还提出了有关人口迁移流动的定义问题、年龄模式的地域差异性反映了我国人口迁移转变的地区阶梯性,以及中国流动人口问题(甚至中国人口问题)的地域差异性。

Based on microdata from the seventh national population census,this study focuses on the flow floating population to examine the age profiles of interprovincial migration in China's provinces.Utilizing clustering analysis,the study categorizes the age-specific out-migration rates and in-migration rates of 31 provinces in China,synthesizing them into five distinct types.The analysis reveals substantial variations in age-specific migration rates among the provinces.Four patterns of out-migration and five patterns of in-migration can summarize the age profiles of interprovincial migrants.Furthermore,by considering the overall out-migration and in-migration rates of each province,a comprehensive classification of provincial age profiles into five types is derived.These findings provide relevant parameters for future regional population projections.Additionally,the paper addresses the issue of defining migration population,highlights the regional disparities in age patterns that reflect the geographical transition of population migration in China,and underscores the regional variations in the issue of floating population(or even the population issue)in China.