高质量发展背景下中国林业产业结构转型升级影响因素分析--基于2017—2021年的省级空间面板数据

Influence Factor Analysis of Transformation and Upgrading of China s Forestry Industry Structure Under the Context of High-quality Development:Based on Provincial Spatial Panel Data in 2017-2021

文中基于我国2017—2021年30个省域的面板数据,利用马尔科夫转移矩阵测算了林业三次产业的发展速度和对总产值的贡献率。测算结果表明:我国林业第三产业的发展速度最快但是对林业经济增长的贡献最小。使用空间自回归模型对林业产业结构转型升级的影响因素进行空间面板计量分析,结果显示:在林业行业因素中,林业系统年末从业人员、林业基层工作站大专及以上学历职工对林业产业结构转型升级的影响呈显著正相关,但在岗职工平均工资、各省造林面积与林业产业结构转型升级之间呈显著负相关关系;宏观经济因素中,地区生产总值和科研投入均对林业产业结构转型升级起到显著促进作用。在此基础上,提出地方政府应加大对林业高质量发展的政策支持力度、通过人力资本优化实现林业产业结构优化、加大对林业第三产业的开发利用效率、提高林业财政支持力度和科研投入强度等建议,以期为实现我国林业高质量发展、加快林业产业结构升级优化进程提供参考。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2017 to 2021,this paper uses the Markov transfer matrix to calculate the development speeds of the primary,secondary and tertiary forestry industries and their contribution rate to the total output value.The results show that the forestry s tertiary industry develops the fastest but contributes the least to the growth of forestry economy.Then,the impact path of transformation and upgrading of the forestry industry structure is analyzed using Spatial Autoregression Model.The results indicate that among the forestry industry factors,the influence of forestry employee and worker with college degree and above on the transformation and upgrading of forestry industry structure is significantly positively correlated.However,there is a significantly negative correlation between the average salary of the employees,the afforestation area of each province and the transformation and upgrading of forestry industry structure.Among the macroeconomic factors,regional GDP and scientific research investment both play a significant role in promoting the transformation and upgrading of forestry industry structure.On this basis,the paper proposes that local governments should increase the policy support to high-quality forestry development,human capital optimization should be promoted to improve forestry industry structure,the forestry s tertiary industry should be better enhanced to improve its development and utilization,more effort should be taken to enhance the fiscal support to forestry and the investment to scientific research.The study is aimed to provide references to realizing the high-quality development of forestry in China and accelerating the upgrading and optimization of forestry industrial structure.