森林碳汇项目可持续性研究进展

Research Progressin Influencing Factors to Sustainable Operation of Forest Carbon Projects

森林碳汇是应对全球气候变暖、实现“碳达峰、碳中和”远景、促进地区可持续发展的有效路径。通过市场路径稳步提升森林的固碳增汇能力,关键在于森林碳汇项目的可持续运营。文中将项目可持续运营影响因素解构为供需主体的驱动因素以及项目效应的强化因素,对相关研究内容、思路与方法的国内外进展进行梳理发现,现有文献对森林碳汇项目可持续运营的驱动因素已有诸多探讨,但缺乏对多元主体差异化利益诉求的系统考察;强化因素侧重于生态福利效应层面,定量研究尚不多见,且以主客观评价为主,可对比性、准确性不足,缺乏因果效应检验。基于森林碳汇项目可持续运营相关研究现阶段不足,提出4个需深化的研究方向,即进一步探究森林碳汇项目多元主体的供需权衡关系、项目运营与社会福利的因果效应、森林碳汇项目非碳与固碳效应的权衡、异质性森林碳汇项目差异化福利效应的影响机制。

Forest carbon sink is an effective way to address global warming,achieve the goals of“carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”,and promote regional sustainable development.The key to constantly improving the carbon fixation and sequestration of forests through the market path is the sustainable operation of forest carbon projects(FCPs).This paper deconstructs the factors affecting the sustainable FCPs operation into the driving factors to the supply/demand subjects and the strengthening factors to the project effect,and reviews the national and international progress in the contents,ideas and methods of the relevant research.It is found that the driving factors to the sustainable operation of FCPs have been extensively discussed,but there is a lack of a systematic review of the differential interests appeal of multiple subjects;and the research on the strengthening factors is only focused on the ecological welfare effect mainly through subjective and objective evaluation,and less quantitative research has been carried out,thus leading to insufficient comparability and accuracy and the lack of causal effect test.In the future,the research on sustainable operation of FCPs needs to be furthered in the four directions,i.e.,the supply-demand trade-offs of multiple subjects,the causal effect of project operation and social welfare,the trade-offs between non-carbon and carbon sink effect of the FCPs and the mechanisms influencing differential welfare effects of heterogeneous FCPs.