基于系统动力学模型的青岛某隧道工程项目社会稳定风险情景模拟

Scenario Simulation of Social Stability Risks of a Tunnel Project in Qingdao Based on System Dynamics Model

重大交通基础设施工程的复杂性使得其在建设过程中容易出现各种利益冲突,各种风险因素交互影响,极易引发社会稳定问题。将社会稳定风险划分为内部风险和外部风险两类,基于政府、公众、生态、经济和社会五个维度选取社会稳定风险指标,分析各维度的风险耦合关系,建立基于系统动力学的重大交通基础设施建设项目社会稳定风险耦合模型,使用Vensim软件对青岛某隧道工程项目进行社会稳定风险仿真分析。结果表明:隧道项目中影响较大的是政府风险和生态风险;同质内部风险耦合效应强于同质外部风险耦合效应;异质内部风险耦合效应和异质内部-外部风险耦合效应强于异质外部风险耦合效应。

The complexity of major transportation infrastructure projects makes them prone to various conflicts of interest during the construction process,and various risk factors interact with each other,which can easily lead to social stability problems.In the paper,social stability risks were divided into internal risks and external risks,social stability risk indicators were selected based on the five dimensions of government,public,ecology,economy and society,the risk coupling relations of each dimension was analyzed,a coupling model of social stability risks of major transportation infrastructure construction projects based on system dynamics was established,and the social stability risk simulation analysis of a tunnel engineering project in Qingdao was carried out by using Vensim software.The results showed that government risks and ecological risks had greater influence on the tunnel projects.The coupling effect of homogeneous internal risks was stronger than that of homogeneous external risks.The coupling effect of heterogeneous internal risks and the coupling effect of heterogeneous internal-external risks were stronger than the coupling effect of heterogeneous external risks.