基于“风险源-承灾体-减灾力”的工业上楼安全风险评估研究

Industrial Superstructure Safety Risk Assessment Based on the Theoretical Framework of“Risk Source-Risk Exposure-Mitigation Force”

工业上楼是一种新型产业空间模式,实现了城市产业空间的高效利用,也给产业园区带来了新的安全风险因素。为科学精准评估工业上楼安全风险,基于“风险源-承载体-减灾力”理论框架,提出由风险源控制、承灾体韧性、减灾力3个准则层和20个二级指标构成的工业上楼安全风险评估指标体系。同时,结合网络分析法(ANP)和物元可拓模型确定指标权重体系和评价方法,建立工业上楼安全风险评估模型,将工业上楼安全风险评估数据实现可拓量化,进而提升评估结果的客观性。以深圳某工业上楼园区为实例进行分析,结果表明该工业上楼园区安全风险等级为轻度风险,评估结果较好,符合实际情况;通过对比发现,提出的评估方法具有实用性、科学性;该园区应重点关注承灾体韧性水平建设,加强少量危化品管理,合理管控生产性振动等风险,加强风险监测预警能力建设,以更好地保障工业上楼安全。

Industrial superstructures are a new type of industrial space model,which realizes the efficient use of urban industrial space and also brings new safety risk factors to industrial parks.In order to scientifically and accurately assess the safety risks of industrial buildings,the paper proposed a safety risk assessment index system for industrial buildings based on the theoretical framework of“risk source-risk exposure-mitigation force”,which consists of three guideline layers of risk source control,carrier toughness,and mitigation force,as well as 20 secondary indicators.At the same time,combining the network analysis method(ANP)and the object-element topology model to determine the indicator weighting system and evaluation method,the establishment of industrial superstructure safety risk assessment model,the industrial superstructure safety risk assessment data to realize topology quantification,and then enhance the objectivity of the assessment results.The paper took an industrial superstructure park in Shenzhen as an example,and the analysis results showed that the safety risk level of the industrial superstructure park was light risk,and the assessment results were better,which was in line with the actual situation;through a comparison,it was found that the assessment method proposed in the paper was practical and scientific;the park should focus on the construction of the resilience level of the disaster-bearing body,strengthen a small amount of hazardous chemicals management,reasonably control the risks of productive vibration,etc.,and strengthen the capacity of risk monitoring and early-warning,in order to better guarantee the safety of industrial superstructures.