北京市制造业减污降碳协同效应分析和驱动因素

Synergy Effects and Driving Factors of Pollution and Carbon Emission Reduction in Manufacturing Industry in Beijing

基于北京市2013~2020年制造业大气污染物和CO_(2)排放数据计算结果,分析了制造业排放变化特征,采用协同效应系数评估了制造业减污降碳的协同效果,并利用LMDI模型量化分析了人口规模、经济发展、产业结构、能耗强度、能源结构和排放强度对于大气污染物排放、CO_(2)排放以及二者综合的驱动影响程度.结果表明,北京市制造业排放总体呈下降趋势,2013~2020年,大气污染物排放减少了79.2%~92.5%,CO_(2)排放减少了60.3%,各项排放在“清空五年”和“蓝天三年”时期呈现不同的阶段性特征.从减污降碳协同效果来看,各项大气污染物和CO_(2)的协同效应系数均在0~1之间,对于大气污染物的减排作用大于CO_(2).从各驱动因素影响来看,能耗强度降低和能源结构优化对于排放的负向拉动作用较大,排放强度降低对于大气污染物排放具有抑制作用;从协同减排综合驱动影响来看,能耗强度降低的协同效果最为明显,产业结构调整在“蓝天三年”时期的协同效果最佳.

Based on the calculation results of air pollutants and CO_(2) emissions of the manufacturing industry in Beijing from 2013 to 2020,we analyzed the characteristics of emissions of the manufacturing industry,evaluated the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon emission reduction of the manufacturing industry with synergistic effect coefficients,and used the LMDI model to analyze the driving effects of population size,economic development,industrial structure,energy consumption intensity,energy structure,and emission intensity on air pollutant emissions,CO_(2) emissions,and their combination.The results showed that the emissions of the manufacturing industry in Beijing have shown a downward trend;the reduction in rates of air pollutant emissions and CO_(2) reached 79.2%-92.5%and 60.3%,respectively,from 2013-2020.The emissions exhibited different phased characteristics from 2013-2017(during which the Beijing Clean Air Action Plan 2013-2017 was released)and 2018-2020(during which the Beijing Blue Sky Defense Action Plan was released).From the perspective of the synergistic effects,the synergistic coefficients of air pollutants and CO_(2) were between 0 and 1,and the emission reduction effect of air pollutants was greater than that of CO_(2).From the perspective of driving factors,the reduction in energy consumption intensity and optimization of energy structure had a greater negative pulling effect on emissions of air pollutants and CO_(2),and the reduction in emission intensity had a negative effect on the emissions of air pollutants.From the perspective of the comprehensive driving impact of synergistic emission reduction,the synergistic effect of the reduction in energy consumption intensity was the greatest during 2013-2020,and the synergistic effect of the optimization of industrial structure was the greatest during 2018-2020.