碳排放权交易价格与全要素生产率:来自中国的证据

Carbon Emissions Trading Prices and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from China

碳排放权交易价格对全要素生产率(TFP)的影响是当前有待检验的重要课题.基于2008~2019年中国省际面板数据,采用双重差分法,估计中国碳排放权交易中碳价对TFP的影响.结果发现,碳价与TFP之间存在持续显著的正因果关系.具体地,碳价每提高100元,试点省份TFP将上升约3.2%.据粗略估计,如果碳价达到与欧盟相同的水平,中国省份的TFP将增长约12.12%.该结论在进行一系列稳健性检验后依然成立.最重要的是,机制分析表明,促进产业结构高级化和能源结构低碳化、加大技术创新以及加强政府政策支持,是提高TFP的有效途径.特别地,当试点地区的碳排放水平更高、环境规制强度更强和政绩考核体系更合理时,碳价对TFP的促进作用更大.因此,政府应从碳价的角度探索激活市场激励型环境规制工具的方法,以更好地完善全国统一的碳排放权交易市场.

The influence of carbon prices in the carbon emissions trading schemes(ETS)on total factor productivity(TFP)is an important issue that has yet to be demonstrated.Based on inter-provincial panel data from 2008 to 2019,this study estimated the impact of the carbon price in China's ETS on TFP by adopting a difference-in-differences model.The results showed that there was a significant and sustained positive causal relationship between carbon prices and TFP.Specifically,for pilot provinces,TFP would increase by approximately 3.2%for every 100 yuan increase in carbon price.Rough estimates suggested that if Chinese provinces were to reach the same level of carbon price as that of the European Union,their TFP would increase by approximately 12.12%.This conclusion remained valid even after conducting a series of robustness tests.Importantly,mechanism analyses revealed that promoting industrial structural upgrading and low-carbon energy structures,increasing technological innovation,and strengthening government policy support were effective ways to improve TFP.It is noted that the positive effects of carbon prices on TFP were more pronounced in pilot areas with higher carbon emissions,stronger environmental regulations,and more reasonable performance assessment systems.Therefore,the government should explore methods to activate market-based environmental regulation tools from the perspective of carbon prices to better enhance the national unified ETS market.