碳达峰时点下渤海通道对区际城市群公路物流碳排放及减排潜力的影响

Influence of the Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel on carbon emission and emission reduction potential of road logistics in interregional urban agglomerations at the time of the Carbon Peak

以2030年“碳达峰”为研究时点,通过IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会)“自下而上”法和社会网络分析法,探究不同通道情境下区际城市群公路物流碳排放及其减排潜力的网络格局,分析渤海通道对其产生的影响。研究表明:①2030年不同通道情境的区际城市群公路物流碳排放网络差异:陆上通道情境下,区际城市群碳交流向经济、交通发达轴带和渤海海峡端点城市集中;陆海通道情境下,区际碳交流向邻近陆上通道的城市集聚;渤海通道改善了区际城市群“渤海海峡端点城市”指向的高耗能局面。②2030年区际城市群公路物流减排潜力网络格局:以大连为减排枢纽,以渤海海峡为中心,强减排城市组对南多北少,并存在零减排城市组对;渤海通道主要通过端点城市向其他城市施以碳减排影响,对距其较远且处在公路物流边缘的部分城市的碳减排影响较为有限。

Taking the“Carbon Peak”in 2030 as the research time point,the IPCC“bottom to up”method and social network analysis method are used to explore the network pattern of carbon emission and emission reduc-tion potential of interregional urban agglomerations road logistics under different channel scenarios,and to ana-lyze the influence of the Bohai Channel on it.The research shows that:1)Differences in the carbon emission network of interregional urban agglomerations road logistics of different channel scenarios in 2030:Under the Land Channel scenario,the carbon exchange of interregional urban agglomerations is concentrated in the eco-nomic and traffic developed axes and the endpoint cities of the Bohai Strait;under the Land-Sea Channel scen-ario,the interregional carbon exchange is concentrated in cities adjacent to the Land Channel;The Bohai Chan-nel improves the high energy consumption situation pointed by the“Bohai Strait endpoint cities”of the interre-gional urban agglomerations.2)The network pattern of road logistics emission reduction potential in interre-gional urban agglomerations in 2030:with Dalian as the emission reduction pivot and the Bohai Strait as the center,strong emission reduction city pairs are more in the south than in the north,and there are zero emission reduction city pairs;The Bohai Channel mainly exerts carbon emission reduction influence on other cities through endpoint cities.However,its influence on the carbon emission reduction of some cities of far away from it and on the edge of road logistics is relatively limited.