全球海底光缆网络的脆弱性结构及区域抗毁性评价

Vulnerability structure of global submarine optical cable network and evaluation of regional survivability

海底光缆作为跨区域连通性基础设施对于社会经济乃至国防安全至关重要,并且时刻面临着自然或人为的破坏风险。然而,当前对海底光缆网络脆弱性的探索仍受限于局部网络与国家尺度。基于此,本文以信息港为节点构建全球海底光缆网络,结合复杂网络理论与仿真模拟手段设计了完备的评价方法,依次对其网络脆弱性进行分析、枢纽信息港进行划分、区域抗毁性进行测度。结果表明:①“海缆”网络在受到随机攻击时较为健壮,在遭受蓄意攻击时较为脆弱,尤其是针对具备中转、衔接功能的信息港进行攻击将极易造成网络崩溃;②枢纽信息港在“海缆”网络中呈极核结构,中介中心性前5名、前10名、前19名以及点度中心性前19名、前34名、前63名为枢纽信息港第一、第二、第三等级的划分标准,是网络连通受损、局部崩溃、完全崩溃3种状态的关键阈值,其中新加坡、开普敦、英格兰西海岸区、佛罗里达等信息港及其周围海域需要予以网络安全方面的重点关注;③区域抗毁性水平存在显著的区际差异,欧洲、北美等地区较高,东亚、南亚与中南亚等地区尚有很大的优化空间。研究成果可为海底光缆网络结构的优化提供参考和决策支持。

Submarine optical cables play a vital role in social economy development,and national defense and security.Submarine optical cables are always facing the risk of natural or man-made damage.However,the current researches of the vulnerability of submarine optical cable network are still limited to local network and national scale.In this article,we construct the global submarine optical cable network with information ports as nodes,and design a set of evaluation method combining complex network theory and simulation tools to ana-lyze network vulnerability,classify hub information ports,and measure regional survivability in turn.The re-search results are as follows:1)The submarine optical cable network has typical scale-free and small-world characteristics,and its vulnerability structure,which is not significant under random attacks but significant un-der deliberate attacks,is confirmed by simulation.In the deliberate attack mode,the submarine optical cable network is more sensitive to intermediary centrality attacks than point-degree centrality attacks,and it can be assumed that the transit and bridging functions of the information port are more critical to the vulnerability structure of the network.2)The submarine optical cable network shows three states of“connectivity damage”“partial collapse”,and“complete collapse”in order with the increase of attack level.Accordingly,66 hub in-formation ports are identified and classified into 3 levels.The hub information ports appear the characteristic of polar core structure in the submarine optical cable network,and echo the main sea lanes,which are the main reasons for the vulnerability structure of the submarine optical cable network.Singapore,Cape Town,England’s west coast area,Florida and other information ports and their surrounding waters need to be focused on secur-ity.3)The redundant connections of hub information ports make the submarine optical cable network have a certain self-regulation mechanism.However,the regional survivability levels vary greatly in space,specifically showing that Europe and North America have higher survivability levels,while East Asia,South Asia and South-Central Asia have midstream destructivity levels,Central America and North Asia have the lowest de-structivity levels,and there is still much room for optimization.Overall,the research results can provide refer-ence and decision support for the optimization of submarine optical cable network structure.