全球数字贸易网络结构演化及影响因素分析

Spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of global digital trade network

世界经济正处在新旧动能的转换期,数字贸易成为当前经济结构转型的典型特征。本文利用OECD数据库中2008-2019年的贸易数据,筛选出6类数字化程度高的行业,从网络结构和影响因素两方面探究了全球数字贸易结构的演化态势。研究发现:①全球数字贸易格局空间分布不均衡,主要的贸易节点和贸易联系都分布在西半球和北半球,“美日欧”作为全球数字经济与数字贸易的引领者,在全球数字贸易网络中占据着重要的地位;②不同行业数字贸易网络的结构和紧密程度有一定差异,但除金融服务的贸易网络为多中心结构外,其他行业的贸易网络均呈现以美国为核心的单中心结构,中国在6类行业的数字贸易网络中均处于外围位置。③信息通信技术、对外开放水平、互联网普及程度、相同收入水平、共同货币、共同语言及区域贸易协定均对促进双边贸易流量的提升有积极作用,接壤关系仅在早期有利于贸易流量的提升,宗教文化对数字贸易并无显著影响,而地理距离对开展数字贸易仍具有显著的抑制作用,打破了“距离已死”的说法。本研究旨在探讨全球数字贸易发展的空间分布及演化,以期增强中国在全球数字贸易网络的辐射能力,寻求竞争优势。

The global economy is undergoing a transition between old and new drivers,with digital trade be-ing a typical characteristic of the current economic structural transformation.In the process of the vigorous de-velopment of the digital economy,the field of digital trade has shown strong competitiveness.Compared with traditional trade,it has stronger resilience and can withstand the downward pressure of the global economy.This study utilizes trade data from the OECD database spanning 2008 to 2019,selecting 6 highly di-gitized industries,to explore the evolution of the global digital trade from both network structure and influen-cing factors perspectives.The study found that:1)The spatial distribution of global digital trade is uneven,with major trade nodes and connections concentrated in the Western and Northern Hemispheres.“USA,Japan,and Europe”as leaders in the global digital economy and digital trade play crucial roles in the global digital trade network.2)Different industries exhibit varying structure and density in digital trade networks.Except for the financial services trade network,which is a polycentric structure,trade networks of other industries are all single-center structures with the United States as the core.China occupies a peripheral position in the digital trade networks of the 6 industries.3)Information and communication technology,openness level,internet pen-etration,income levels,currency,language,and regional trade agreements all contribute to the enhancement of bilateral trade flows.Bordering relationship is favorable for boosting trade flows only in the early stages,and religious culture has no significant impact on digital trade.Geographical distance still significantly inhibits di-gital trade,challenging the notion that“distance is dead”.This study aims to explore the spatial distribution and evolution of global digital trade,in order to enhance China’s radiative capacity in the global digital trade network and seek competitive advantages.